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The vice presidential candidate who is leading by 10 points just before the 2024 election: will that matter?

The vice presidential candidate who is leading by 10 points just before the 2024 election: will that matter?

  • Historically, the choice of vice president plays no role in a candidate’s chances of winning
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There is a notable gap in the popularity of the vice presidential candidates in the 2024 election.

According to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Tuesday, Senator JD Vance's approval rating was 32 percent from the beginning of August to the end of the month.

Meanwhile, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz increased his approval ratings from 39 percent in the August 13 poll to 42 percent in the post-Democratic Convention poll.

The 10-point lead shows the boost Walz could potentially give Vice President Kamala Harris, as further evidence is the fact that he met with the candidate last week for her first and only interview since she entered the race in late July.

A new poll shows Minnesota Governor Tim Walz with a 10 percentage point lead over Ohio Senator JD Vance in the vice presidential race.

Despite this divide, there is still widespread agreement that the running mate is not crucial to the success of a presidential campaign.

The co-author of “Do Running Mates Matter? The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections” noted that it is quite normal for vice presidential candidates to be “less popular” than the frontrunners on the ticket.

“They are less likely to appeal to the broader American population,” says Christopher Devine, adding, “Within their own party, they are really popular.”

Vance and Walz reportedly bring the same thing to their respective ticketing lists. They are both white men from the Midwest who come from working-class backgrounds.

About one in four voters who did not want to comment on the Republican or Democratic vice presidential candidates took part in the new poll.

Vance joined Trump's campaign team in July during the Republican National Convention, and Harris announced Walz as her running mate on August 6, less than two weeks before the Democratic National Convention.

Not only is Walz ahead in the popularity rankings, but he is also ahead of Vance in terms of the number of Americans who believe the vice presidential candidate is ready to take on the office of president if necessary.

Trump announced at the start of the Republican National Convention that he would run with Ohio Senator JD Vance on his ballot in November.

Trump announced at the start of the Republican National Convention that he would run with Ohio Senator JD Vance on his ballot in November.

Just two weeks before the Democratic Party Convention, Vice President Kamala Harris announced her running mate: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

Just two weeks before the Democratic Party Convention, Vice President Kamala Harris announced her running mate: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

Forty-one percent of Americans surveyed by ABC News/Ipsos said they were “confident” that Vance would be ready to take the helm if he had to succeed Trump.

And 49 percent think the same about Walz.

Vance, 40, first took office in 2023 when he was elected U.S. Senator for Ohio. Before that, he was a Marine, author and venture capitalist and earned his law degree from Yale.

Walz, 60, on the other hand, has been in public service for more than a decade. The former schoolteacher and Army veteran served as U.S. representative for Minnesota's 1st congressional district from 2007 to 2019. He gave up his House seat when he won his campaign for governor of Minnesota, where he has served ever since.

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