Two months before Election Day, Mark Robinson is trying to turn around a faltering campaign in North Carolina.

Less than two months before Election Day: Is Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson's campaign showing signs of weakness?

He is lagging behind in polls and donations. He is being outdone on television. And election forecasters are now classifying the race as “more Democratic” and no longer as undecided.

Recent polls have Robinson trailing his Democratic opponent Josh Stein by as much as 14 points. That's a landslide victory by any standard, but especially in North Carolina, where statewide elections tend to be pretty close. Stein's lead is similar — if slightly smaller — to the lead Gov. Roy Cooper had over his Republican opponent Dan Forest in the 2020 gubernatorial race.

At the moment, the race does not appear to be as close as many may have expected, considering that the Stein-Robinson matchup was predicted to be one of the most expensive and competitive gubernatorial races in the country this election cycle.

According to campaign finance reports filed with the North Carolina State Board of Elections, Stein raised nearly $14 million between February and June, while Robinson raised about $5 million. And data from AdImpact, which tracks political ad spending, shows Stein has a massive advantage on radio. In spending on ads aired so far, Stein has a 2-to-1 edge. And in TV ad reservations through Election Day, Stein's advantage grows to 16-to-1.

Of course, fundraising isn't everything. In major elections in North Carolina, Democrats have often outraised Republicans in fundraising and spending, only to lose at the polls. But there are still cases where messaging can be effective, and this could be one of them. Also, the question at the heart of this campaign has always been whether Robinson's history of vitriol would be too much for North Carolinians to handle, and so far there are plenty of reasons why.

The Stein campaign is flooding the airwaves with simple, blunt ads that use Robinson's own words against him — potentially to Robinson's detriment. Axios Raleigh reported that an ad against Robinson in which he says abortion is about “killing the child because you weren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down” was particularly effective. In a focus group conducted by Axios, a woman quoted that comment when asked what she knew about Robinson.

Robinson's campaign is fighting hard to regain control of the issue, pointing to other recent polls that show Stein six percentage points ahead of Robinson.

“Despite a significant spending advantage from Soros-backed radical left-wing career politician Josh Stein, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson is closing the gap and attempting to reach voters of all backgrounds across the state,” Robinson's campaign spokesman Mike Lonergan said in a statement. “Polls have consistently underestimated Republican support in North Carolina for multiple election cycles. With a large portion of the electorate still undecided as we continue to ramp up our efforts on the ground and on the air, Mark Robinson remains in a strong position to win in November.”

A memo from Robinson's pollster, obtained by the Charlotte Observer, said Robinson is doing better in the polls than Forest did in 2020 or Pat McCrory in 2016, putting Robinson “on course to win.” Republican gubernatorial candidates in North Carolina historically outperform the polls by 7% or more on Election Day, the memo said.

Of course, it's worth noting that Robinson only does better than Forest and McCrory in some polls, while doing worse in others. It's also worth noting that Forest lost by 4.5 percentage points in 2020 — a pretty big margin by North Carolina standards — so Robinson could do better than Forest and still lose.

Still, Robinson's recent actions seem to indicate that he is once again more focused on revitalizing his campaign. After months of not holding any public campaign events, Robinson has now launched a “statewide tour of North Carolina,” with about a dozen appearances over the next week. Perhaps to counter the impression that he is untrustworthy and doesn't have enough experience for the job, Robinson held a press conference last month where he unveiled a “public safety plan” for North Carolina. The press conference lasted 11 minutes and the plan was just over a page long. Two weeks earlier, he had released an economic plan.

Still, it would be naive to say that this race is already won. This is North Carolina, after all, and anything can happen. Perhaps Robinson can polish his image enough to convince those who are hesitant to vote for him, or perhaps they will decide to vote for him anyway. But right now, he is not doing well.