Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula – forecast, direct comparison, tournament progress

Iga SwiatekTry the US Open Title is put to the test against home hope Jessica Pegula in the quarter-finals on Wednesday.

Neither player has dropped a set on their way to the quarterfinals, which further increases the excitement of the upcoming encounter.

Game Preview

© Imago

During most of the fourth round match on Monday night Lyudmila Samsonova played commendably against the world number 1. But Swiatek turned the tide at 5-4 against the Russian's serve in the first set, winning the set 6-4 with a break and winning five additional games in the second set to take a 5-0 lead.

Swiatek finished the match 6-4, 6-1, defeating the 16th seed and extending her head-to-head lead to 4-0 before her quarterfinal match against the in-form Pegula.

The 2022 champion is back in the last eight of the tournament after a fourth-round loss in her 2023 title defense and is now aiming for a second crown in New York and her sixth Grand Slam title overall.

Although she is almost unbeatable at the French Open, the 23-year-old is statistically flourishing in Queens: Before the current event, she had a win rate of 80% and was able to improve this even further by reaching this year's quarterfinals.

Her 83% win rate at the US Open is better than her performance at the Australian Open (74%) and Wimbledon (69%), and the Polish star will be hoping to repeat her 2022 run and win a second Major title in 2024.

© Imago

She must defeat Pegula, who Diana Schnaider 6-4, 6-2 in Monday's round of 16 match on Arthur Ashe Court, continuing an outstanding run against one of the tour's in-form players before the tournament.

Like Swiatek, Pegula has not dropped a single set in her four victories and will be hoping that momentum will serve her well against the dominant No. 1, who typically overwhelms her opponents when she gets going.

Fans will be on the No. 6 seed American's side as she faces the Polish star, a factor the 30-year-old could use to her advantage against the five-time Grand Slam winner as she looks to reach her first semifinal at this level.

Although the six-time quarterfinalist usually falters at this stage of the four major tournaments, she hopes to advance at the seventh attempt this year at Swiatek's expense.

After winning the WTA 1000 title in Toronto and reaching the final in Cincinnati, where she was defeated by Aryna Sabalenka – the American hopes that her current momentum will help her break through her glass ceiling on Wednesday.

Tournament so far

Iga Swiatek:

First round: Comparisons Kamilla Rachimova 6-4 7-6[6]
Second round: Comparisons Ena Shibahara 6:0 6:1
Third round: Comparisons Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: against Liudmila Samsonova 6-4 6-1

Jessica Pegula:

First round: Comparisons Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3
Second round: Comparisons Sofia Kenin 7-6[4] 6-3
Third round: Comparisons Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3
Round of 16: against Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2

Direct comparison

Washington (2019) – Round of 16: Pegula 5-7 6-4 6-1

Miami (2022) – Semifinals: Swiatek 6-2 7-5

French Open (2022) – Quarterfinals: Swiatek 6-3 6-2

US Open (2022) – Quarterfinals: Swiatek 6-3 7-6(4)

San Diego (2022) – Semifinals: Swiatek 4-6 6-2 6-2

United Cup (2023) – Semi-finals: Pegula 6:2 6:2

Doha (2023) – Final: Swiatek 6-3 6-0

Montreal (2023) – Semi-finals: Pegula 6-2 6-7(4) 6-4

WTA Finals (2023) – Final: Swiatek 6-1 6-0

Swiatek and Pegula will meet for the tenth time on Wednesday. In the direct comparison, the Polish star leads 6:3.

The number 1 seed has defeated her American opponent in two Grand Slam duels in 2022 – Roland Garros and, at this point, the US Open in the same year – in straight sets.

Although Pegula recorded her third win over Swiatek in eight meetings in last year's semifinals in Montreal, the dominant 23-year-old secured a 6-1, 6-0 victory over the experienced player at last year's WTA Finals to win the title in just 58 minutes.

We say: Swiatek wins in two sets

Pegula is arguably in the form of her life and would normally be considered the favorite to reach the semifinals if she had to compete against anyone else.

Although the American knows what it takes to beat Swiatek on hard courts – her three victories over the Polish star came on hard courts – opting for the No. 1 seed is usually the safe choice.

We predict a three-set victory over the No. 6 seed, although the 30-year-old may have to score break points against a player who hasn't faced a single break point in three consecutive rounds.

ID:552070:1false2false3false:QQ:: from DB desktop:LenBod:collect7477:

Preview by email