Findings from a report that questions the accuracy of Iranian ballistic missiles

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As Iran threatens retaliation against Israel over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the accuracy of the Islamic Republic's long-touted missile program is being questioned.

A new expert report, obtained exclusively by the Associated Press, suggests that one of the state-of-the-art missiles Tehran could use in a future attack on Israel is far less accurate than previously thought.

The finding comes months after a U.S.-led coalition shot down many drones and missiles fired by Iran in an attack on Israel in April. Other missiles apparently failed to launch or crashed in flight.

Here are some insights into the Iranian ballistic missile threat:

The Iranian missile had poor accuracy

Analysts at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies examined the Iranian attack on the Nevatim air base, located about 65 kilometers south of Jerusalem in the Negev desert. They believe Iran used its Emad missile, a variant of the country's Shahab-3 missile, which was modeled on North Korea.

Assuming that Iran attacked the hangars of Israeli F-35I fighter jets, James Martin analysts measured the distance between the hangars and the missile impact areas, yielding an average of about 1.2 kilometers (0.75 miles) for the “circular error probability value” – a measure used by experts to determine the accuracy of a weapon, using the radius of a circle encompassing 50% of the missile's landing site.

This is far worse than the 500-meter (1,640-foot) margin of error that experts had initially estimated for the Emad. Iran had separately advertised the Emad to potential international buyers with a margin of error of 50 meters (164 feet).

Many missiles were fired during attacks

The US, Britain, France and Jordan shot down all enemy missiles. The Americans claimed to have shot down 80 bomb-carrying drones and at least six ballistic missiles. Israel's missile defenses were also activated, although their initial claim of having intercepted 99 percent of the missiles appeared to be exaggerated.

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, told AP they estimate that 50 percent of Iran's missiles have failed during launch or crashed before reaching their target, raising further doubts about the capabilities of Iran's missile arsenal.

Questions about a possible future attack by Iran

Iran does not share a border with Israel and the two countries are about 1,000 kilometers apart at the shortest distance. This makes Iran's missile program indispensable for any direct military attack. The greater the distances, the greater the potential for even the smallest errors in the missile's guidance system, as well as the effects of wind and other weather conditions.

Iran could also enlist the help of allied militias such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels to overwhelm Israel's defenses. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy fire on August 25.

However, Iran's poor performance in April and years of sabotage against its ballistic missile program raise questions about whether Tehran would be able to accurately hit targets at that distance.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to threaten the possibility of building a nuclear weapon. The pressure from its inability to deter Israel could lead Iran to weaponize its program, which it has long claimed was peaceful.

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