Vladimir Putin ignored a war crimes arrest warrant and visited Mongolia. Here's what he might be up to

Since arriving in Mongolia less than 24 hours ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin's feet have rarely touched anything other than the red carpet.

While his war against Ukraine rages more than 7,000 kilometers away, Putin is attending commemorations of the 85th anniversary of the joint Mongolian-Soviet victory against the Japanese on the Khalkhin Gol River.

Joined by Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, Putin greeted the officials in the large Sukhbaatar Square in central Ulaanbaatar before climbing the steps of the government building, with a giant Russian flag flying to their left and a Mongolian flag to their right.

In the run-up to the commemoration, a state honor guard in traditional armor marched on horseback through the city's streets, which are known for their heavy traffic.

While Mr Putin has visited several countries since launching the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Mongolia is the first country to become a member of the International Criminal Court.

This means that Ukraine is obliged to arrest Mr Putin. The arrest warrant was issued 18 months ago and accuses him of war crimes for allowing the trafficking of Ukrainian children to Russia.

But when Putin arrived late Monday evening, he was met by the country's foreign minister, Batmunkh Battsetseg, who led him down a gold-trimmed red carpet and flanked by a military guard in red and blue uniforms.

“If he can stay in a country that is a member of the ICC and not arrest him, it creates the impression that Russia does not really care about the ICC and that the ICC does not really play a role,” says Sergey Radchenko of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“So maybe that’s part of his calculation.”

Given that the invitation had come from the Mongolian president, it was almost impossible to believe that such an arrest would take place. Bloomberg even reported that Putin had been assured that he would not be arrested during his visit.

“We have an excellent relationship with our partners from Mongolia,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in Moscow.

“All aspects of the President’s visit have been carefully prepared.”

Ukraine called on Mongolia to arrest Mr Putin, and Human Rights Watch and the European Union did the same.

“The Ukrainian side hopes that the government of Mongolia is aware of the fact that Vladimir Putin is a war criminal,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“The abduction of Ukrainian children is just one of the many crimes for which Putin and the rest of the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation must be brought to justice.”

Why Mongolia did not arrest Putin

The ICC cannot conduct trials in the absence of defendants and is dependent on the detention of defendants by its 124 member states.

“It would be truly astonishing if Mongolia were to sacrifice the benefits of continued good relations with Russia in this way,” says Jenny Mathers of the Department of International Politics at Aberystwyth University.

“What compensation could the ICC or even the West offer Mongolia to make the matter worthwhile?”

Since the country lies entirely between Russia and China, it imports almost all of its fuel and about 20 percent of its electricity from Russia.

While the country is trying to build a broader range of relations through its Third Neighbourhood Policy, it has been allied with its giant neighbour for decades and expanded those relations even further in 2019.

“This upgrade was aimed at increasing Russian investment in Mongolia, particularly in energy and infrastructure, while strengthening cultural ties,” says Christopher Bluth of the University of Bradford.

“The war in Ukraine is a difficult issue for Mongolia because, on the one hand, it is an ally of Russia, but on the other hand, it is also a democratic country dependent on the West, and Mongolia has a strategic partnership with the United States.”

Mongolia has so far abstained from the UN vote condemning the war in Ukraine.

Since South Africa is also a member of the ICC, Putin attended a meeting of the BRICS summit in South Africa virtually – another indication that he would not risk a trip to Mongolia without assurances.

Professor Radchenko says Mongolia has been careful not to violate sanctions against Russia and has tried to maintain a neutral stance in the war against Ukraine.

“And it expects everyone to understand that as a landlocked country that is highly dependent on Russia, it cannot really behave any differently,” he told ABC.

“You can't give the Russians the middle finger and say, 'Now we are against you,' because Mongolia's survival depends on a good relationship with Russia.”

What does Putin want with Mongolia?

On Monday there was a small protest rally in front of the government building in Ulaanbaatar.

In the run-up to today's celebrations, a huge Russian flag was hoisted alongside the Mongolian flag at the government building, and in front of it, demonstrators waved Ukrainian flags and held a sign reading: “Get the war criminal Putin out of here.”

But on Tuesday morning, hours before the official events began, a police cordon had been set up and there was a heavy police presence.

Although there have been protests against the war in Ukraine in front of the Russian embassy in the past, the attitude of the Mongolian population towards their neighbour can hardly be generalised.

A meeting was also planned between Putin and Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene and the speaker of the state parliament, the so-called Great Khural, Dashzegve Amarbayasgalan.

A Kremlin statement said Putin and the Mongolian president would discuss the further development of relations between the two countries and “exchange views on current international and regional issues.”

However, a key point of discussion will undoubtedly be the “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline, which is intended to transport Russian gas through Mongolia to China. It is considered crucial to offset the losses incurred by Russia due to its isolation from its European customers.

Moscow and Beijing are reportedly at odds over how much China will pay for the gas, and the South China Morning Post reported that the project was not mentioned in Mongolia's latest action plan.