Putin's visit to Mongolia contradicts the ICC arrest warrant and puts the diplomacy of the neutral country as a “third neighbor” to the test

Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia on September 2, the Russian president's first visit to a member country of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since the body issued an arrest warrant for him in 2023. While officially commemorating a Soviet-Mongolian military victory in World War II, Putin's visit will test the small Central Asian country's policy of neutrality and the influence of international institutions.

Mongolia, a country with only 3.3 million inhabitants but a huge area, has long been in the shadow of Russia and China in its foreign policy, with whom it maintains close historical and economic ties.

The country has sought to strengthen its independence from its more powerful neighbors by building friendly relations with so-called third neighbor countries, which include the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea.

With this approach, Mongolia is trying to carve out a niche for itself on the international stage and present itself as a neutral diplomatic meeting place. The annual Ulaanbaatar Dialogue, for example, is an opportunity for countries in the region and other invited nations, including from the US and EU member states, to discuss issues ranging from climate change to regional security to critical minerals.

As scholars of Mongolia and China, we attended the last such dialogue in June 2024 and witnessed Mongolia's diplomatic efforts firsthand. It's a strategy that has worked for the country, but as events like Putin's visit show, it can be a difficult balancing act.

A closely observed visit

The timing of Putin's trip is officially tied to history, marking both the 85th anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol – in which joint Soviet-Mongolian forces defeated Japanese troops during World War II – and the founding of the Mongolian State Railway by the two countries 75 years ago.

But it is a third historic milestone: the fifth anniversary of the comprehensive Russian-Mongolian strategic partnership, which underlines the importance of the visit from a modern geopolitical perspective.

In addition to friendly relations with “third neighbors,” Mongolia continues to maintain close relations with Moscow, although Putin is considered a pariah by much of the international community. Most recently, in July, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh met with Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

But Putin's current visit – his first to the country since 2019 – poses a challenge for Mongolia as it seeks to balance its commitments and alliances with the Western-led international order, which includes the ICC, with its desire to remain friendly with its powerful neighbors.

Few things are more striking evidence of this diplomatic balancing act than Mongolia's membership in the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant for Putin for his alleged role in the illegal deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. Ukraine has called on Mongolia to arrest Putin, citing the ICC's founding treaty, the Rome Statute, which instructs member countries to take action when individuals under judicial review enter their territory.

However, the ICC does not have an effective enforcement mechanism and member states may also be exempt from the obligation to make arrests if doing so would conflict with certain treaty obligations or the diplomatic immunity granted to another party.

Putin's visit is likely to demonstrate how little can be done to keep Moscow in check. Given the power imbalance between the two states, Mongolia is likely to show how far it is willing to go to accommodate its powerful neighbor.

Mongolia as a “third neighbour”

For almost 70 years, Mongolia was closely allied with the Soviet Union. But the collapse of communism and the subsequent geopolitical realignment of the post-war order forced the country to change its economic and political relations.

This made Mongolia the only former communist state in Asia to introduce a democratic political system and an open economy, winning the favor of the United States and other Western countries, which viewed the country as a model for the region.

Putin's expected trip is just the latest in a string of high-level state visits in recent times, as Mongolia strives to maintain close ties with its neighbors while expanding partnerships with other countries.

So far, Mongolia has hosted heads of state or foreign ministers from the United States, Slovenia, the Philippines, Belarus, the United Kingdom and Germany in 2024. In 2023, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene traveled to the United States and met with Vice President Kamala Harris and to China to meet with President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Qiang.

Both French President Emmanuel Macron and Pope Francis recently visited Ulaanbaatar.

Mongolia cannot escape geography

While Ulan Bator's soft power efforts have won it sympathy and friends around the world, they are not as important as its geographical location. As a landlocked country between Russia and China, Mongolia is defenseless against the whims of its two giant neighbors.

Mongolia is almost entirely dependent on Russia for its gasoline and diesel supplies, as well as much of its electricity. In addition, Russia owns 50% of shares in several key infrastructure and mining projects in Mongolia, as a result of a Soviet-era agreement. In particular, Russia is a partner in the Mongolian railway system, which has gained importance as a trade corridor between China and Russia, and China and Europe.

Mongolia fears a disruption to its fuel supplies and transportation network if Russia, in the midst of a war, puts its own energy needs above the interests of its neighbors, however close those ties may be.

Similarly, Mongolia depends on China for the majority of its non-energy imports, including food, consumer goods and manufactured products. And China is the destination for 90 percent of Mongolia's exports, mainly coal and copper.

Both Russia and China have used their economic and political strength to exert pressure on Mongolia in the past because they felt slighted by the country. In 2016, for example, China blocked trade and granted the country a major loan in protest against the Dalai Lama's visit to Mongolia.

Mongolia and the new Chinese-Russian alignment

Mongolia and other Central Asian states face new challenges as Russia and China grow closer politically and economically.

Mongolia played the role of a buffer state between the Soviet Union and China for much of the 20th century, taking advantage of the rivalry between the two superpowers to achieve and maintain its independent status.

But the growing friendship between China and Russia – highlighted by Putin and Xi's declaration of a “borderless” partnership in February 2022, just days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine – raises questions about whether China and Russia will begin to act together to gain even more influence over Mongolia and other smaller states in the region.

It is these geopolitical concerns that Ulaanbaatar may have in mind during Putin's visit. Although Mongolia is affected by sanctions against Russia and transport and business links are disrupted, the country has avoided confrontation with Moscow on the international stage.

Like China, Mongolia regularly adheres to UN resolutions condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But as a sign that Mongolia remains committed to its third-neighbor policy, it is also careful not to violate sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and its allies.

While Mongolia recognizes the importance of Putin's visit to maintaining good relations and fuel supplies to the country, it is also concerned about how the visit and the expected non-enforcement of ICC sanctions could damage the country's reputation with global institutions and powers outside the region.

In a changing world order, Mongolia is doing its best to preserve its independence by emphasizing its role as a neutral state and friend to all. But visits like Putin's show how difficult that endeavor can be.

This article was adapted from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization that brings you facts and trusted analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Christopher K. Tong, University of Maryland, Baltimore County and Charles Krusekopf, Royal Roads University

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Charles Krusekopf is associated with the American Center for Mongolian Studies.

Christopher K. Tong does not work for, consult for, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond his academic employment.