Yankees vs. Rangers: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-2

The New York Yankees travel to open a series against the Texas Rangers.

Even with Gerrit Cole on the mound, my predictions for the Yankees vs. Rangers game focus on getting shortstop Corey Seager to hit hard and do some damage.

Read on to find out my MLB picks for Monday, September 2nd.

Prediction Yankees vs Rangers

My best bet
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at FanDuel)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

I don't have much of an edge in this matchup. New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole is expected to be the clear favorite at this point, and he's mostly in line with my predictions. The total has some value; I'd put it at 8.2, and it's around 8.5. There are better bets out there, though.

Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager has been one of the best hitters in baseball and will continue his strong play today.

Seager can hold his own against Cole, even though the ace is one of baseball's elite, because his arsenal happens to include shots Seager has thrown throughout his career. Cole, for example, throws his four-seamer over 45 percent of the time. It's no surprise that Seager has been well above league average against the fastball in his career. That's a problem for Cole against a hitter who just had an incredible August in which he hit 11 home runs and had Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi singing his praises.

“It's just impressive,” the pitcher said of Seager last week. “We're so grateful to be able to watch him play every day and everything he does day in and day out.”

Seager's home runs are a big deal here, because another important aspect of this fastball duel is that he leads all Rangers in hard hit rate against this pitch. And that's not a close call, either. Seager has a 62% hard hit rate against the fastball, while the next best Ranger is at 48%.

This has been a bigger problem than usual for Cole. Simply put, he's allowed way too many hard-hit balls. He'll enter today with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 35% of the league, a barrel rate in the bottom 25%, and a ground ball rate in the bottom 30%. All of this suggests Seager has a good chance of making sharp, powerful contact.

Take Seager over 1.5 bases. I'd put that closer to -130, clearly the best odds for this game.

Aaron Judge's choice: No free ticket

My best bet
Aaron Judge under 0.5 walks (+180 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Aaron Judge has an uneven history against Andrew Heaney.

In 12 batting appearances, Judge has batted for a yard once and has a slugging average of just over .566. He still has to make contact, though, and those batting appearances also included seven strikeouts and a whiff rate of over 35%. I don't expect that to stop.

I've decided to take a different viewpoint because the odds are way too high at over 0.5 strikeouts. Heaney should be much more willing to chase Judge than nibble at the corners to get an inevitable walk. That makes the price of Judge not getting a walk interesting, and my projections have him closer to +160. If we get Heaney through the order at least twice, I'd have a good chance here with a fully rested bullpen full of strikeout pitchers.

Yankees vs. Rangers – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases

First five innings Over 4.5

That number is too low. Cole's struggles with the hard-hit ball could become problematic. Four Rangers hitters have a hard-hit rate against the fastball that's above the league average. On the other hand, Heaney has been well below average for most of the year, and I'll give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt that they can get to him inside five innings.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Rangers odds

Yankees vs Rangers live odds

Yankees vs. Rangers Opening Odds

• Money line: New York -190 | Texas +160
• Execute line: New York -1.5 (-125) | Texas +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Yankees vs Rangers Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• These teams have shared their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
• The Yankees have a .500 average in their last ten games, but have lost four of their last five games.
• Meanwhile, the Rangers are on the upswing, winning five of their last six games and giving bettors a +2.07 unit return on their last ten games.
• Even before Texas named a starter, it was costing money. At publication, the Rangers' moneyline price had changed nearly 15 cents from its opening number.

Yankees vs Rangers Trend

The Yankees have covered the run line in 41 of their last 69 road games (+13.75 units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rangers here.

Game info Yankees vs Rangers

Yankees vs Rangers: Latest injuries

Weather Yankees vs Rangers

Pages on this topic