After attack, German right-wing extremists face election victories

Voters in two former eastern German states began casting their ballots on Sunday in elections that are expected to deal a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government and hand major gains to the far-right AfD.

The elections in Thuringia and Saxony take place less than a week after the deaths of three people in a suspected Islamist attack that sparked a bitter debate about immigration in Germany.

According to opinion polls, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) is ahead in Thuringia and is just in second place in Saxony. A strong result is also predicted for the up-and-coming left-wing extremist party BSW.

With their criticism of the government in Berlin and the military aid for Ukraine, both parties are finding a receptive audience in the eastern German states.

An election victory for the AfD would be a milestone in German post-war history and a rebuff for Scholz before the 2025 federal election.

In both federal states, Scholz's Social Democrats are polling at around six percent, while their coalition partners, the Greens and the FDP, are even further behind.

But even if the AfD were to emerge victorious in the election, it is unlikely to come to power because the other parties have ruled out forming a government with the extreme right.

Polls will close at 18:00 (16:00 GMT), with exit polls expected to begin shortly after.

– Rise of the extreme right –

The AfD was founded in 2013 as an anti-euro group before morphing into an anti-immigration party. Since then, it has taken advantage of the fractious three-party coalition in Berlin and gained ground in the opinion polls.

In the European Parliament elections in June, the party achieved a record 15.9 percent overall. It did particularly well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the strongest force.

Saxony is the most populous of the former East German states and has been a conservative stronghold since reunification.

Thuringia, on the other hand, is more rural and the only federal state currently governed by the far-right party “Die Linke”, a successor party to the communist party of East Germany.

Elections will also be held in Brandenburg, a third former East German state, at the end of September. According to polls, the AfD is ahead there with around 24 percent.

The picture is somewhat different in the individual federal states, but “it is clear that the AfD will have a very strong number of votes behind it,” Marianne Kneuer, political science professor at the Technical University of Dresden (TU Dresden), told AFP.

The AfD has found greater support in the East because more voters there “identify with its nationalist and authoritarian positions” and many are dissatisfied with the established parties, said Kneuer.

At the party's last election campaign event on Saturday in Erfurt, the state capital of Thuringia, 52-year-old voter Thorsten Haentzsche said he “dreams of an absolute majority” for the AfD.

“But we are realistic. A result of at least 33 percent would be great, because that would give us a blocking minority in the (state) parliament,” he said.

– New challenger –

Dissatisfaction with the government has also led to growing support for the BSW, which was founded in January by hard-line politician Sahra Wagenknecht after she left the Left Party.

Like the AfD, Wagenknecht and her party are taking advantage of a moderate attitude towards Russia and are calling for radical action against immigration.

In the European elections in June, the BSW was able to record an immediate success: it received around six percent of the German vote and is in a strong third place in the polls in Saxony and Thuringia.

The refusal of other parties to cooperate with the AfD makes the BSW the potential kingmaker in Thuringia and Saxony, despite serious political differences with potential partners, especially on the Ukraine issue.

However, the run-up to the elections in Saxony and Thuringia was dominated by an outcry over immigration, which was triggered by the deadly knife attacks in the Westphalian city of Solingen.

The suspected attacker, a 26-year-old Syrian with suspected links to the terrorist militia “Islamic State”, was to be deported, but was able to evade the authorities’ attempts to deport him.

The government responded to the alarm bells by announcing stricter knife controls and regulations for migrants living illegally in Germany.

The conservative CDU, which is hoping to win both elections, said the initial measures did not go far enough and called for a ban on entry for refugees from Syria and Afghanistan.