Stock markets in danger? Trump predicts crash if Harris wins | 01.09.24

The economic impact of the US election has been hotly debated by various parties for weeks. Most recently, Trump issued a dramatic warning to the economy if current US Vice President Kamala Harris wins.

• Numerous scenarios regarding the election outcome discussed
• Harris catches up with Trump
• Trump warns of Kamala crash

US election and their economic impact

Since the start of the election campaign in the US, there have been numerous experts making predictions about the various economic effects of the election outcome. For example, Bruce Ng, a senior crypto analyst at Weiss Ratings, expects that there could be a crypto rally after the US election. “Elections usually clear out speculative uncertainty in the market, so we are in for a serious 'moonage' after the November election. [d.h. einen Preisanstieg] will experience,” the expert is quoted by MarketWatch. Presidential candidate Donald Trump and with him, the Republican Party has recently moved significantly in the direction of a crypto-friendly policy. However, there is still uncertainty among the Democrats in their attitude towards cyber currencies. The Democratic presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris recently expressed a desire to “redesign” relations with the crypto industry, but so far no concrete measures have been taken.

The potential impact of a Trump victory on the stock market, the price of gold and the dollar, as well as the US relationship with China, have also been widely discussed by experts.

Recently, the former president also demanded a say in Fed policy. During a press conference, Trump stated that he would die if re-elected Monetary policy The Fed could have a positive influence. “I think the president should at least have a say there,” he said, highlighting his business acumen. Trump emphasized that his success and experience gave him a better sense than many who serve in the Federal Reserve or as chairman. He suggested that the Fed's current leadership is less adept at dealing with economic challenges. These statements are clearly meant as direct criticism of the current Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell – although Trump himself appointed Powell to the position in 2018.

Harris catches up in the election race

Now the current vice president is catching up with Trump in the polls. Chris Matthews of MarketWatch recently explained that a key reason for the Democrats' upswing could be the improving state of the US economy. Justin Begley, economist at Moody's Analytics, also stresses that while political factors such as the strength of the candidates and the enthusiasm of the voters play a role, economic factors are more dynamic and influential – especially for undecided voters. Decades of data analysis by Begley and his team suggest that four economic indicators are particularly crucial for election results: changes in household income, gasoline prices, mortgage rates and consumer confidence. And these four indicators have recently changed in Harris's favor.

However, weaker labor demand could put pressure on Harris, Begley added. “The slowdown in labor demand, the loss of hiring and the creeping rise in unemployment is definitely a negative factor that impacts income,” the expert said.

Trump issues warning to investors

Most recently, Donald Trump himself commented on the economic impact of the election results. In a speech in North Carolina that was supposed to focus on his economic policy message, he issued a dramatic warning: If his competitor emerges as the winner of the US elections, he said there would be a “Kamala crash.”

Trump's remarks – which he described as “intellectual” to attendees in Asheville – often drifted into personal attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris, NCNewsline explains, and also included comments on immigration and President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the race. For example, he accused Harris of being part of an administration that, he falsely claimed, had allowed “more than 100 percent” of new jobs created in the United States to go to immigrants.

He repeatedly reiterated his prediction that Harris' campaign would pursue an economic agenda that was “a carbon copy of my plan,” especially after the vice president supported his call not to tax tips. He also stated that he would return the economy to its pre-pandemic state “immediately” if he returned to the White House. “If Harris wins this election, the result will be an economic crash under Kamala,” Trump said. “A depression like 1929. If I win the election, we will immediately see a brand new economic boom under Trump. It will be a boom.”

As WallStreet Online reports, Trump blamed Harris for the biggest declines in years in early August. “Of course the stocks have fallen. Kamala is even worse than the fraudster [Präsident) Joe [Biden]”, he wrote on the social media platform Truth Social. “The markets will NEVER accept the left-wing crazies who destroyed San Francisco and all of California.” The next step: THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 2024! You can't play games with the MARKETS. KAMALA CRASH!!!”

In a statement released by Harris' campaign ahead of Trump's speech, Governor Roy Cooper called Trump “a risky gamble that North Carolina cannot afford” and described Harris as “a proven winner who has already delivered a lot for our state,” NCNewsline reports.

“The people of Western North Carolina know when they are being brought here because they experienced it firsthand when then-President Donald Trump bankrupted our economy just as he bankrupted his own casinos, with low wages for working people, fewer jobs and high unemployment,” Cooper said.

However, it remains to be seen who will ultimately win the US elections and how this will affect the economy.

Editorial staff finanzen.at

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