Trump vs. Harris: A high-stakes election and its risks for democracy

When Republicans met in Milwaukee in July for their quadrennial convention, Donald Trump was on the way to victory in November. He was ahead in the polls. He stood next to his opponent, Joe Bidenwho imploded in a presidential debate. He had narrowly escaped an assassin's bullet. And he presided over a lavish party convention with all the hallmarks of a victory celebration.

In short: Trump had the advantage.

And then he was losing.

Within a month of the Republican National Convention, everything had changed. A few days after the convention concluded, President Biden announced that he would not run for president in November and endorsed his running mate, the Vice President. Kamala Harrisinstead. Within 48 hours, Harris had cleared the field of all possible challengers and garnered the support of the entire party. Within a week, she secured the support of a majority of delegates and raised $300 million for her campaign. And within a month, she had closed Biden's poll deficit and was ahead of Trump nationally and in most swing states.

A lot can still happen in the race. The country remains deeply divided and polarized, and the election will likely be decided by a few thousand votes in a few swing states. Trump may finally accept that he must run against Harris, not Biden, and make his case against her more effectively than he has over the past two weeks. Harris is still undefined to most voters, and could stumble somewhere along the way – in a debate, an interview, or otherwise.

“One week”, Harold Wilson said, “is a long time in politics.” In the age of social media, one hour can change everything.

But while much can still change, we do know one thing: This election poses unique risks for democracy in America and has profound implications for the global political landscape.

Possible risks during the election

In America, the first Monday in September – Labor Day – marks the beginning of the final stretch of the presidential election campaign. From that day until Election Day, the process is fairly predictable. In some states, early voting, in person or by mail, begins in a few weeks, reaching its peak in the week before November 5.

In the final weeks before the end of the election, there are surprises in every election, sometimes external (for example, a massive escalation of an ongoing conflict or an economic disaster) or internal (a scandal or mishap that changes voters' perceptions of the election). Social media, artificial intelligence, and foreign interference can also influence how voters view the candidates – even more so in the case of Harris, who is still relatively new to the political scene compared to Trump. Race and gender can also play an unpredictable role.

However, given the country's divisions and the relatively insular nature of the political debate, it is relatively safe to assume that the election will be close – only a fraction of the roughly 140 million people likely to vote will likely make the decision. The electoral process itself is therefore unlikely to pose a major risk.

Rather, the greater risk comes from Republicans' strategy to delegitimize the electoral process. Trump and his allies are preparing to aggressively challenge the election results by claiming that any defeat, especially after a close race, would be the result of a rigged system. This narrative, similar to the one Trump promoted after his 2020 loss, is being amplified by many party supporters, including elected officials, as the election draws closer. It could lead to efforts to disrupt the voting and counting process, increasing the potential for post-election violence. The willingness of federal, state, and local governments to address these challenges remains uncertain.

A key difference from the 2020 election is that the incumbent government has the power to enforce legal measures to maintain order. The federal government's willingness to exercise this power is one of the biggest uncertainties in this election.

Risks of a Harris victory

A narrow Harris victory carries immediate risks, stemming primarily from Trump's refusal to acknowledge defeat with dignity. Trump's denial of the 2020 election results has boosted his 2024 campaign and the broader Make America Great Again movement. The potential for widespread, organized efforts to discredit the election, accompanied by possible violence, is very real. The turmoil following a Trump defeat in 2024 is likely to dwarf the events of January 6, 2021 in scale and intensity.

Impact on the Ukraine-Russia conflict

The ongoing war in Ukraine will remain a critical international issue regardless of the outcome of the election. While Trump may seek to bring about a negotiated end to the conflict, his limited influence over Kyiv and Moscow means the course of the war is unlikely to change significantly.

The main difference is in the way the conflict is being managed. Under a Harris administration, continued US military support for Ukraine would be crucial to maintain pressure on Russia. Conversely, a Trump administration's disinterest could lead to a relaxation of sanctions against Russia, which would affect the geopolitical balance and ultimately lead to Ukraine's defeat.

The parliamentary elections will be equally important for the future of the conflict. A Democratic majority in Congress would facilitate the delivery of further arms packages to Kyiv, while a new Republican majority would likely create additional obstacles to further aid.

Impact on NATO and global alliances

Trump's worldview, which favors win-lose scenarios over cooperative alliances, threatens NATO's integrity. Even some Trump sympathizers in Congress, such as Republican Senator … Marco Rubiohave introduced bills to reverse any attempt by a president to “suspend, disband, or withdraw” from NATO. But these are unlikely to have much effect. Trump's disregard for mutual defense agreements could undermine the alliance's strategic coherence and make European allies uncertain about the U.S.'s support in times of crisis. This loss of trust could undermine NATO's effectiveness.

Domestic political tensions and effects

Domestically, a Trump return to power would likely increase tensions on many fronts. His administration would be expected to respond more forcefully to protests and civil unrest, potentially leading to widespread violence.

Trump has also promised to deport 15 million illegal immigrants. If implemented, this would create widespread fear and have a significant impact on the economy. Key issues such as women's rights, racial justice and the legitimacy of the democratic process could trigger significant societal conflict.

Conclusion and call to action

A second Trump presidency would be very different from his first, which would be dominated by a group of loyalists who put Trump's interests above national concerns. His campaign, marked by themes of revenge and retribution, suggests an administration eager to settle scores with its political opponents.

Conversely, a narrow victory for Harris could pose unprecedented challenges to electoral integrity and stability.

During these extraordinary times, the risks for businesses and individuals operating in the U.S. are significantly heightened. Navigating this landscape requires critical insights and strategies to ensure safety and business continuity despite potential disruption.

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This commentary was written by Ivo Daalder, former US Ambassador to NATO and strategic advisor for political risk on the Healix Risk & Advisory Board. For more information about Daalder, see his current interview with Ian Bremmer To GZERO WorldThey discuss the views of the Baltic states on Russian aggression.