Result prediction for North Carolina vs. Minnesota by a football expert model

Week 1 begins Thursday night with a notable Big Ten-ACC clash in the Twin Cities as Minnesota welcomes North Carolina today to kick off the 2024 college football season.

Carolina is making a lot of changes on both sides of the ball: replacing outgoing quarterback Drake Maye and bringing in Geoff Collins to coordinator a defense that has failed to live up to its potential in recent years.

Minnesota is coming off its first season with more losses than wins since 2017 and is making a change at quarterback after abysmal offensive numbers last year.

What can we expect when it kicks off? Let's look at how ESPN's SP+ prediction model predicts the clash, along with the latest betting information for the Week 1 match.

The simulations favor an early win for the Tar Heels, but predict a close game.

SP+ predicts that North Carolina will likely defeat Minnesota 26-25 and win the game by a projected 1.2 point margin.

The model gives the Tar Heels a slim 53 percent chance of a clear victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

According to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has the game's total score set at 50.5, North Carolina is a slim 1.5-point favorite against Minnesota.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for North Carolina at -130 and for Minnesota at +108.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should consider the following…

Other analysis tools also predict that North Carolina will defeat Minnesota in Week 1.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

The index predicts that North Carolina will win the game in 54.3 percent of its simulations, while the Gophers will prevail in the remaining 45.7 percent of simulations.

The computer predicts a very close game and assumes that the Tar Heels are 4.3 points better than Minnesota.

That would be enough for Carolina to make up the 1.5-point lead against the Gophers.

When: Thursday, August 29
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox Network

Related: Minnesota vs. North Carolina Game Prediction and Preview

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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