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Old Farmer's Almanac predicts mild winter for North Jersey

By Hudson Brooklyn
Old Farmer's Almanac predicts mild winter for North Jersey

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Every year, as summer draws to a close and the morning air becomes crisp, New Jerseyans ask themselves the age-old question: What will winter look like this year? Depending on your preferences, you either want snow or none at all.

Well, fellow snow bunnies, you may not be breaking out your padded boots and hand warmers as often as you'd like, because if the Old Farmer's Almanac from 1792 is your preferred source for weather forecasts, New Jersey is in for a mild winter, according to the latest predictions.

And as a reminder, another forecasting magazine, the Farmers' Almanac, released its own winter forecast earlier this month, predicting a “wet winter storm” as the climate pattern known as La Niña likely occurs between September and November. That almanac, dating to 1818, says the change in weather pattern could bring milder temperatures across the Garden State this fall. Both almanacs also divide New Jersey into two parts, with the northwestern portion, primarily Sussex County, potentially seeing more snowfall, while areas to the south and east are predicted to see more rain.

When does winter start?

Depending on which definition you follow, there are still about 14 or 16 weeks until winter.

From an astronomical point of view, the winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere is on December 21 at exactly 4:21 a.m. EST, exactly when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted as far away from the sun as possible, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac. The word solstice comes from the Latin Solwhat sun means, and Sisterwhich means to stand still. Loosely translated, according to the almanac, it means “the sun stands still.” Strangely, the sun's path across the sky seems to stand still for a few days before and after the solstice.

The “longest” day of each year is often around June 20 and 21, and the “shortest” day around December 21 or 22. Winter then ends at the spring equinox, which will occur on March 20, 2025 at 5:01 a.m. EST.

Meteorologically speaking, the season begins on December 1st and ends on the last day of February.

Fun fact: Stand outside at noon on the day of the winter solstice and look at your shadow. It's the longest shadow you'll cast all year. As you'd expect, you'll see almost no shadow at all on the summer solstice.

How cold will it be in the Northeast this winter?

When it comes to weather forecasts, the Old Farmer's Almanac divides the country into over a dozen regions. This includes the Northeast, which includes a northwestern square of New Jersey that includes Sussex County and a small portion of Warren County, as well as Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, inland Massachusetts and New York, and the upper northwestern portion of Connecticut.

“There is always plenty of snow in this region in winter,” the almanac says, “but we are predicting a milder than usual season that is not as rough and harsh.”

Temperatures in the Northeast will be above average overall, with January being the month with the highest temperatures at 4 degrees above average, the almanac predicts. The coldest periods are predicted for mid-December and late February.

How cold will it be in the Atlantic Corridor this winter?

Consider the Atlantic Corridor, which the Old Farmer's Almanac describes as land along the East Coast, stretching across seven states, starting in the north in Boston and down to New York City, the remaining larger portion of New Jersey, and down to Washington, DC, and Richmond, Virginia.

How cold will it get in this region? “Not bad,” says the Old Farmer's Almanac, which indicates that winter temperatures will be slightly above average. However, February is expected to be about 2 percent colder than usual on average, the almanac predicts.

The almanac predicts that some “cold snaps” are to be expected in mid-December, early and late January, and late February.

Will it snow or rain in the Northeast and Atlantic Corridor this winter?

If you're a snow lover, you might be in luck if you live closer inland or maybe even in Sussex County. But don't expect any more than usual, the almanac says.

“Yes, there will be plenty of snow,” the almanac predicts, “but precipitation and snowfall will be slightly below normal.”

The magazine predicts that the amount of snowfall will be about 1 to 1.5 percent below average. The snowiest months will be early December, mid-February and early March.

In the Atlantic Corridor, snowfall amounts will be below average in the northern region and above average in the southern region. The almanac did not specify which areas are considered northern and southern.

According to the journal's forecasters, most snow is expected in the corridor region at the end of December and the end of February.

What are the average winter temperatures in North Jersey?

Here are the average monthly temperatures for the winter season in the North Division, which includes Hunterdon, Somerset, and Union counties and all counties above, with data collected for 128 years, or between 1895 and 2023, by the Office of the State Climatologist at Rutgers University:

  • December: 31.1 degrees
  • January: 27.1 degrees
  • February: 28.4 degrees
  • March: 37.3 degrees

How much snow was there in North Jersey last year?

According to data from the Office of the State Climatologist, snowfall totals during the 2023-2024 winter season in North Jersey ranged from just under 36 inches in northern Sussex County to about a foot in areas in Bergen, Hudson, Essex and Union counties.

Most areas of Sussex County received between 25 and 33 inches of snow last winter, with more snowfall at higher elevations. Passaic and Morris counties received between 18 and 25 inches, while areas further east received about a foot or a little more over the course of the winter season.

How does the Old Farmer's Almanac make its predictions?

The oldest continuously published magazine in North America – founded during the presidency of George Washington – boasts an overall accuracy of 80% in its weather reports.

According to the journal, it uses a unique three-discipline weather forecasting method that relies heavily on solar activity and patterns, meteorology and atmospheric science, and historical trends and temperature averages.

While experts have criticized the almanac's predictions over the years — a University of Illinois study concluded that they were only accurate about 52% of the time — and experts advise readers to take the forecasts with a grain of salt, the magazine has its supporters. The 2025 edition of the book, now in its 233rd year, will be available August 27, with orders being accepted now.

Email: [email protected]; Twitter: @LoriComstockNJH or on Facebook.

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