Analyst: Ken Paxton could have a “chilling effect” on Ted Cruz's election

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's recent raids, ordered as part of his ongoing election integrity investigation, could harm his Republican colleague Senator Ted Cruz.

Paxton announced last week that his election integrity unit had executed several search warrants after receiving allegations of voter fraud.

On Tuesday, the country's oldest Latino civil rights groups raised alarm that the homes of several of their members had been raided as part of Paxton's investigation. The League of United Latin American Citizens called on the Justice Department to investigate the raids and called the attorney general's actions “hard-core voter intimidation.”

“LULAC will fight for the right to vote for every Latino,” Roman Palomares, the group’s national president, said Monday at a press conference outside Paxton’s office in San Antonio.

Although the Lone Star State has never been considered as a candidate for Vice President Kamala Harris (Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976), the raids conducted by Paxton's office and the allegations made by Latino voting groups raise questions about what this means for the race for the state's Senate seat.

Democrats hope to win Senator Ted Cruz's seat in November and elect state Rep. Colin Allred in his place.

The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as “likely Republican,” but recent polls suggest Allred could catch Cruz. A YouGov/University of Houston poll released last week showed Allred trailing his Republican opponent by just two points. In June, the incumbent was three points ahead.

The allegations made against Paxton could mean that further reinforcements are on the horizon for Allred.

“These raids will definitely have a chilling effect on the Latino electorate in South Texas,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist and specialist in Texas politics at the University of Houston, Newsweek.

“Allred is already struggling with Latino voters, and high turnout in those communities could make all the difference,” Rottinghaus said.

Newsweek has emailed Cruz's re-election campaign for comment.

According to a poll conducted earlier this month by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University, Latino voters prefer Allred over Cruz by just six percentage points. Female voters, on the other hand, prefer Allred by seven percentage points. Gen Z voters favor Allred by 27 percentage points, and black voters by 52 percent.

Hispanics in Texas reached a major milestone in 2021 when Latinos officially made up the largest share of the state's population, narrowly outnumbering white residents by 40.2 percent to 39.8 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Turnout in the Latino community is the most important challenge to Democratic victory in Texas,” Rottinghaus said. “If the number of voters from these communities is low, the Democrats' chances of winning statewide diminish.”

Joshua Blank, research director at the Texas Politics Project, was more skeptical about Paxton's raids increasing voter turnout.

“Historically, policies that can be described as hostile to the Latino electorate have done little to influence their perception of the electoral process in the state,” Blank said Newsweek.

“Ultimately, there are larger factors at play when it comes to Latino turnout, as both parties, but particularly Republicans, have been trying to gain traction with Hispanic voters, particularly in South Texas, in recent years,” he said. “It's notable that Attorney General Paxton has taken the lead on this issue at this time, as he won't be running again until 2026.”

Blank added that playing up allegations of voter fraud is a common tactic used by Republicans in Texas. “However, Cruz has tried to strike a much more pragmatic tone in this campaign, portraying himself as some kind of great compromiser, even though he is considered intransigent on the immigration issue.”

“Anything that restricts the right of a minority member to vote in Texas jeopardizes Allred's chances of winning,” said political consultant Jay Townsend Newsweek“Paxton knows this, and it should come as no surprise that he will do everything in his power to prevent Hispanics from voting or to accuse them of voter fraud if they do vote.”