According to the DNC poll, Donald Trump is neck and neck with Kamala Harris in Miami-Dade County

Miami-Dade County has sided with the Democratic candidate in the last eight presidential elections, but new polls suggest that streak could end in November.

Donald Trump is on track to achieve the best result of a Republican presidential candidate in Miami-Dade since 1988, Inquiry LLC found.

On Sunday, pollsters found that Trump and Kamala Harris are statistically tied, with 47% of likely voters voting for both. The remaining 6% are undecided.

If these numbers hold until Election Day or continue to move in Trump’s direction, it would be the best performance by a Republican presidential candidate in Miami-Dade since George H.W. Bush won the county with 55% of the votes.

Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabreraa Republican state committee member and Trump's ally The poll was commissioned by AD, who ran the former president’s 2020 election campaign in Florida.

Cabrera said he intentionally conducted the survey on last night of the Democratic National Convention to capture the Democrats’ “greatest enthusiasm” for Harris.

“Their enthusiasm will only wane from now on,” he said, echoing what senior Trump campaign officials said last week about Harris' “Upswing after the conference.”

Opinion polls showed Trump leading among Republicans by 90 percent to 5 percent, while Harris was leading a similar 90 percent to 8 percent among her party.

Among independent voters, Trump is ahead of Harris (41%) with 49%. He is also more popular among independents (50% approval, 43% disapproval) than Harris (40% approval, 51% disapproval).

However, Harris' opinion is slightly better among all voters: 49 percent of respondents say they like her, while 45 percent say the opposite. Trump's opinion is 48 percent positive and 46 percent negative.

Inquire LLC randomly surveyed 500 likely general election voters in English and Spanish from August 22-25. Interviews were stratified by precinct and demographic characteristics to reflect general election turnout in previous even-numbered years.

The margin of error of the survey was 4.5 percentage points and the confidence interval was 95 percent.

Hillary Clinton won the district in 2016 by 30 percentage points against Trump. Four years ago Joe Biden won there with a lead of 7 points.

As of 1 AugustIn Miami-Dade, 514,308 voters were registered as Democrats, 458,218 as Republicans, and 472,407 had no party affiliation. The remaining 29,132 voters belonged to a third-party group.

Since August 2022, Democrats in Miami-Dade have lost nearly 62,000 voters, while 11,000 unaffiliated voters either left the district or joined a party. Republicans, meanwhile, gained 25,000 voters, Show electoral rolls.

At the state level, the Republicans now have a more than 1 million voters ahead about the Democrats.

Referring to a survey conducted earlier this month by Plantation-based MDW Communication Harris led in Miami-Dade with 15 pointsEmployees of Inquire LLC said their numbers reflect the actual trend in the county.

“Despite other unreliable polls showing one-sided, double-digit results and significant swings in party preference that would be unprecedented in modern political history, (our) numbers suggest that margins in Miami-Dade County should be extremely close in November,” the company wrote.

Cabrera agreed.

“This poll reflects the mood of voters in Miami-Dade,” he said. “Once a Democratic stronghold, Miami-Dade is no longer a sure win as our community embraces conservative values ​​and rejects the failed Biden-Harris policies that are ruining our country. The results show that President Trump's message resonates more strongly than ever and that he is on the verge of being elected our 47th president.”

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