Support for AfD in Germany rises after knife attack leaves three dead – MishTalk

After three fatal knife attacks by a rejected Syrian immigrant, the anti-immigration AfD could win three state elections in September.

Knife attack

NPR reports: Man claiming to be behind Solingen knife attack turns himself in, German police say.

A 26-year-old Syrian asylum seeker has turned himself in to police and claimed to be responsible for the knife attack at a festival marking the 650th anniversary of the city of Solingen in which three people were killed and eight injured, German authorities said early Sunday.

On Saturday, the militant terrorist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, but offered no evidence. The extremist group said on its news site that the attacker targeted Christians and carried out the attacks on Friday night “to avenge Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere.” This claim could not be independently verified.

The attack occurred in the wake of the immigration debate ahead of next Sunday's state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, where anti-immigration parties such as the populist Alternative for Germany are expected to achieve good results.

According to Reuters, elections will be held in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1, with Brandenburg following on September 22. Together, the three federal states have around 8.5 million inhabitants, making up 10 percent of the German population.

The far-right AfD is likely to emerge from this election as the strongest party. It will probably be difficult or even impossible for an anti-AfD coalition to suppress the AfD.

AfD crowds cheer for the nation’s most feared politician

The Guardian reports: AfD crowds cheer for the country’s most feared politician

Elections are taking place in three eastern German states next month, and by a quirk of the calendar, these are the regions where the far-right Alternative for Germany has the strongest presence. If the polls are correct, the AfD could become the strongest party in all three states, a year before the next federal election is scheduled. Depending on who you ask, this would be a political earthquake, a catastrophe or a wake-up call for the country.

The strength of the AfD and a new populist upstart, Sahra Wagenknecht's “left-conservative” coalition, underscores interlocking trends in Europe's largest economy: growing frustration with incumbents, fear of Germany's military support for Ukraine and simmering divisions between East and West more than three decades after reunification.

Höcke, 52, is co-chairman of the AfD's regional association in Thuringia, which will vote together with Saxony on September 1. The AfD, which is polling at around 30 percent, has been classified as “confirmed right-wing extremist” by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in both federal states. In Brandenburg, the rural federal state around Berlin, the elections will take place on September 22. The AfD association is listed there as “suspected right-wing extremist.”

The future of the government in danger

DW report: Future of German government in danger in state elections

Although East Germany is often seen as a homogeneous region, there are major political differences between the federal states. While Thuringia has been governed by the socialist Left Party under Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow for a decade, Saxony has been led by Michael Kretschmer of the CDU since 2017.

In both states, the only possible coalitions that keep the AfD out of government (and all other parties have promised to do just that) are an uneasy alliance between the CDU and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). It would be a bizarre partnership: the former is a centrist party that likes to present itself as a rock of stability, tradition and conservatism, the latter an upstart less than a year old and led by a former communist with a talent for populist rhetoric.

“Sahra Wagenknecht is a cult figure in East Germany. She leads the party autocratically and is at the center of the longing for authority and leadership in the East,” said Vorländer.

An alliance with the BSW, which has just under 20 percent of the vote in Thuringia and over 10 percent in Saxony, will probably be difficult for some in the CDU to swallow. Apart from the fact that Wagenknecht was once a member of the SED in the GDR, she is already making demands that the CDU will find difficult to accept. For example, she is said to be against the stationing of American medium-range missiles in Germany.

And although the BSW has consistently distanced itself from the right-wing extremist AfD and ruled out any cooperation, one fact overshadows this election with unease: the two parties have more in common than differences.

All this puts Scholz's SPD in a desperate situation, especially as elections are taking place three weeks later in Brandenburg, another eastern German state. Here, too, the AfD is ahead in the polls, with the SPD and CDU competing for second place.

But in some ways it is Scholz's coalition partners who have the most to fear in these three elections. The Greens, currently in government in all three states, are likely to lose influence, while the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) in the east face annihilation – probably as punishment for hanging on to Scholz's bandwagon. This does not bode well for Scholz's already fractious coalition.

SPD on the verge of collapse

In Saxony and Thuringia, the SPD is at around 5 percent in opinion polls.

This is the hurdle for representation in government.

Saxony Surveys

The Left, the Greens, the SPD and the FDP are all at the five percent hurdle.

They all deserve to be kicked out. But that doesn't mean we should cheer them on.

Thuringia Surveys

In Thuringia, the Left is significantly stronger than in Saxony.

Brandenburg polls

Get ready to say goodbye to the FDP with a bang.

The Greens are under fire in Thuringia and hopefully across the board.

The more parties are eliminated, the more difficult it becomes to form coalitions.

It will be impossible to exclude both the AfD and the BSW. Both are anti-immigration and pro-Russia.

National elections

The next national elections are scheduled for September 28, 2025.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces that he will run for a second term, but support for his SPD has collapsed.

The famous traffic light coalition is not viable as their combined support has dropped to 48.5 percent and the FDP is on the brink. The FDP deserves to be thrown out for agreeing to join the current coalition chaos.

Who is in favor of another failed grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD?