Harris leads nationally, but Trump leads in North Carolina, election forecast shows • NC Newsline

Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to defeat former President Donald Trump in November's election, but she could lose in North Carolina, according to the latest forecast from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill.

The Decision Desk HQ Forecast model, which relaunched Monday after a month-long hiatus following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, shows Harris has a 55 percent chance of winning the presidency. The previous model predicted a 56 percent chance of Trump defeating Biden.

The model is based on a mix of the latest polling data, donations and the partisan leanings of each district.

In the updated version, North Carolina changes from “leaning Republican” to “undecided.”

The results in the other swing states are also developing in Harris' favor: Michigan is moving from “toss-up” to “lean democratic.” Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain “toss-up,” although Harris is doing better than Biden in these states.

Decision Desk HQ projects a 64 percent chance of victory for Trump in North Carolina, compared to 36 percent for Harris. The analysis includes 10 polls conducted between February and August – two of which were released months before Biden's exit.

Since Harris entered the race, the gap between the Democratic candidate and Trump has narrowed significantly. A Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll published in May showed Trump leading by 10 percent in North Carolina, while polls from recent weeks show Harris catching up.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the Tar Heel State was Barack Obama in 2008, making him the first to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Since Obama's victory, Republicans have won every federal election in North Carolina.

For the other swing states, Decision Desk HQ predicts a Trump win in Arizona and Georgia, but Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will go to Harris. It's a forecast that expects 276 electoral votes for Harris and 262 for Trump.

According to the model, Harris has improved the Democrats' chances in the congressional elections.

In the Senate, Republicans are still ahead with a 67 percent chance of winning the majority, but that is closer than their previous 78 percent when Biden was at the top of the list of candidates.

Decision Desk HQ believes Republicans have a “fundamental advantage” in this election, with Democrats defending 23 of the 33 contested seats. Three of these elections are in states Trump won in 2016 and 2020, while not a single Republican-held seat is in states Biden won in 2020.

In the House of Representatives, however, the situation is relatively uncertain: Decision Desk HQ predicts that Republicans have a 56 percent chance of winning control of the lower house, compared to the previous model's 61 percent chance.

Republicans won nine seats in the House of Representatives in 2022, securing a narrow majority that they will have to defend in November. Democrats hold 213 seats, just five short of the 218 they need for the majority and the Speaker's presidency.

North Carolina has 14 seats in Congress, currently split 7-7.

In the last round of redistricting, Republicans in the state legislature redrawn the map so that a Republican victory in ten districts is virtually certain, leaving three for the Democrats. The 1st Congressional District, represented by Democratic U.S. Representative Don Davis, is the only seat in the House of Representatives in North Carolina that is considered contested.