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Chances in the presidential election after the DNC: Harris and Trump neck and neck

By Hudson Brooklyn
Chances in the presidential election after the DNC: Harris and Trump neck and neck

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A surge after the DNC vote has not yet been factored into the betting market for the presidential election, as Vice President Kamala Harris is either considered a narrow favorite or is tied with former President Donald Trump at the betting counters.

The margin between the candidates at the bookmakers is variable, with offshore bookmakers Bovada and BetOnline seeing Harris as a clear but narrow favourite, while the odds at UK bookmakers Bet365 and Betfair are for a draw.

The British bookmaker Betfair Exchange had bets equivalent to over $5.125 million during the week of the DNC.

The activity, in which U.S. bookmakers are not legally allowed to participate, moved clearly toward the vice president during the honeymoon period of the Harris-Walz ticket, but has cooled in recent weeks.

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Timeline of presidential election odds

Odds for the presidential election on August 26

Betfair Exchange

  • Kamala Harris: +102
  • Donald Trump: +105

Bet 365

  • Kamala Harris: -110
  • Donald Trump: -110

via Covers.com

Bovada

  • Kamala Harris: -115
  • Donald Trump: -105

BetOnline

  • Kamala Harris: -120
  • Donald Trump: EVEN

Odds checker

  • Kamala Harris: +102
  • Donald Trump: +106

How accurate were the voting rates in past presidential elections?

According to the non-profit news organization “Conversation,” the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866.

Harris had the narrowest lead over Trump of any Democratic candidate in recent memory after 75 days, sitting at -102 with British bookmaker Betfair Exchange. In contrast, odds for Hillary Clinton were -323, but Clinton lost the election on one of the two occasions the underdog won on election night.

The other surprise happened in 1948, when Harry Truman (D) defeated Thomas Dewey (R) despite an 8-1 lead.

When the market opened for Harris' vice presidential run, bettors weren't putting their money on Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly were bettors' favorites during most of the vice presidential betting, with Walz rocketing up the odds in recent days.

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