Why the knife attack in Germany has reignited EU fears of right-wing extremists

Good morning. First the news: French President Emmanuel Macron has rejected Moscow's accusations that the arrest of Russian-born Telegram founder Pavel Durov was politically motivated. Prosecutors had said the billionaire was arrested because his messaging app was used for drug trafficking and the distribution of child sexual abuse material.

Today I explore what Germany's reaction to this weekend's knife attack might mean for Europe. And our man in the Balkans has news about Bulgaria's seventh parliamentary election in three years.

Knife edge

A fatal knife attack in Germany has rocked the country's politics ahead of state elections this weekend – and is worrying politicians across the EU who are nervous about the rise of the far right and anti-immigration rhetoric.

Context: A Syrian man stabbed three people and injured eight others in the western German city of Solingen on Friday evening. The attack has boosted already strong support for the far-right nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of elections in Saxony and Thuringia this Sunday.

Yesterday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised not only to tighten German gun laws but also to reduce the influx of illegal migrants and increase the number of deportations. Previously, Björn Höcke, the leader of the AfD in Thuringia, had attributed the attack to “this multicultural experiment in our country.”

The Solingen tragedy causes two major concerns for Brussels.

In the short term, this has highlighted the political dangers posed by a resurgence of the far right across Europe – just weeks after centrist parties celebrated a result in the European elections that they believed confirmed their dominance on the EU political stage.

Longer term, many in Europe fear that a hasty response from Germany – potentially including new border controls and possibly even controls on freedom of movement within the country – could trigger a flood of similar unilateral measures in other countries where anti-immigration politicians are popular.

This would undermine the EU's Schengen area's core principles of free movement and place further strain on a fundamental aspect of the Union's internal market.

“We cannot respond to this by slamming the door in the faces of people who are often themselves fleeing from Islamists,” said Kevin Kühnert, general secretary of Scholz's Social Democrats.

Many in Brussels hope that a calmer reaction will prevail.

Chart of the day: Fallen Star

Can political changes and attempts to restore the confidence of foreign investors help the Warsaw Stock Exchange recover from a lost decade in which it fell into crisis at a time of Poland's economic boom?

All good things come in sevens

Three years ago, Bulgarians ended the rule of center-right politician Boyko Borissov in the hope of a new, stable government with credible anti-corruption reforms. Instead, they were blessed with seven early elections, the final vote scheduled for October. writes Marton Dunai.

Context: One of the poorest and most corrupt EU member states, Bulgaria replaced Borissov's GERB party in 2021. After that, parliaments were repeatedly elected that were unable to form a lasting coalition. Sometimes GERB won, sometimes liberals and populists. None of them could hold on.

The consequences of this political inertia are far-reaching. Sofia has not implemented the reforms needed to release billions of euros of urgently needed EU funds. The path to full membership of the border-free Schengen area and the planned introduction of the euro has stalled.

President Rumen Radev, who yesterday announced elections for October, is the only constant. But earlier this month he refused to support a possible cabinet. The problem? Close ties between the proposed interior minister and the US and UK-sanctioned tycoon Deljan Pejewski.

Peevski, a media and business magnate who has acquired a strong political platform as head of the ethnic Turkish MRF party, denies any wrongdoing but was described by U.S. authorities in 2021 as someone who “regularly engaged in corruption and used influence peddling and bribery to shield himself from public scrutiny and exercise control over key institutions and sectors of Bulgarian society.”

“Borisov is weakened and will remain neutral,” said Dimitar Bechev, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe. “The elections are unlikely to produce a stable government and pave Bulgaria's way into the eurozone. Peevski will fight tooth and nail for power.”

In the end, Radev postponed the early vote until late October and asked a former interim chief, chief auditor Dimitar Glavchev, to propose a new team. Political uncertainty remained, as did business risk, said Mario Bikarski, senior European analyst at risk analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft.

“Capital investments have been postponed and key reforms needed to unlock EU funds and join the eurozone are being delayed,” he said. “As the political crisis deepens, economic uncertainty is likely to increase in the absence of a medium- to long-term government strategy.”

What to watch today

1. The presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania visit Moldova to celebrate the country's Independence Day.

2. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez begins a trip to Mauritania, Senegal and Gambia.

Now read this

• Teresa Ribera: The Spanish socialist is considered the favorite to be the next climate boss of the EU Commission. How could the demanding perfectionist implement the green agenda?

• Not: French President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out a government led by the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance, which won the early elections in July.

• Türkiye’s Africa offensive: Through soft power initiatives, closer trade ties and growing security alliances, Ankara has become a political broker on the continent.