How human error drives wars in the Middle East | Opinion

Israel's ongoing war against Iranian proxy forces on multiple fronts has been marked by daring operations and tragic human errors. From Hamas' cross-border attacks to the Israeli military's courageous hostage rescues, from Houthi rockets in Tel Aviv to Israel's remote detonation of Hezbollah commanders' pagers, these events have shaped the conflict. But at the heart of these operations is a common thread: human error.

The repeated tactical failures on both sides suggest that a reassessment of strategies is urgently needed. With the growing reliance on technology and data, the importance of human judgement cannot be overlooked. Scientific disciplines and studies account for uncertainty through concepts such as the “margin of error”. This principle, based largely on the pioneering work of British physicist John William Strutt (Lord Rayleigh), emphasizes the importance of understanding and quantifying uncertainty.

One of the most painful examples of human failure occurred on October 7, when the Startup Nation was caught completely off guard by a Hamas attack. Despite early warnings from female soldiers stationed on the Gaza border, their concerns were ignored, with devastating consequences. It took weeks for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to fully mobilize, a failure that exposed critical vulnerabilities. This was a fiasco for both the military and diplomats, who should have been more vigilant about the threat.

Even Israel's modern missile defense systems, such as Iron Dome and David's Sling, are vulnerable to human error. This was demonstrated on July 19, when a Ukrainian was killed in a drone strike on Tel Aviv launched by Houthi forces from Yemen. Many were shocked at how easily an Iranian-made weapon could penetrate Israel's defenses. Just weeks later, a Houthi missile landed in an open area between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Although Israel's missile defense systems were activated, a shrapnel from an interceptor struck a train station in Modiin, raising further questions about whether lessons have been learned.

Human error is not limited to one side. Hamas completely misjudged Israel's retaliation after the October 7 atrocities.

A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research shows that 57 percent of Gazans believe the October 7 attack on Israel was a mistake. Only 37 percent believe Hamas will continue to rule Gaza after the war, and only 36 percent want the group to remain in power. It is clear that these are not the results Hamas expected. How could it have miscalculated so badly?

More than 80 percent of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have been displaced, many now living in tents.

Hezbollah, which has been firing rockets at northern Israel's cities for years, also made a serious mistake. Emboldened by the ongoing conflict, Iran's proxy in Lebanon overlooked one of Israel's most daring and technically sophisticated operations. The Pager attack, which killed 37 Hezbollah fighters and injured over 3,400, was a serious error in Hezbollah's planning.

This story will be discussed on talk shows and around the family dinner table for years to come. Hezbollah's technical errors probably exceeded any margin of error it expected. Israel, for its part, has been carrying out telephone attacks for years, but has not officially claimed responsibility for these actions.

While human error is inevitable, it can be anticipated. This requires implementing resilient systems, building in redundancy, challenging assumptions, and using red teaming, where teams specifically challenge strategies to uncover weaknesses. The goal is to see the bigger picture and prevent mistakes from having catastrophic consequences.

Ultimately, it is overconfidence and a lack of human thought that have caused the mistakes we face today. These mistakes were fatal to all sides. The real victory will come when we stop repeating these mistakes.

Felice Friedson is president and CEO of The Media Line news agency and founder of the Press and Policy Student Program, the Mideast Press Club, and the Women's Empowerment Program. You can reach her at [email protected].

The views expressed in this article are those of the author.