Three in five believe Labour will lose the next election, poll shows

According to the More in Common poll, almost one in five Labour voters (17 percent) now regret their decision to support the party. Sir Keir's approval ratings have fallen to -20 points. At the end of July, after his landslide victory, they were still at 11 points.

But his honeymoon was short-lived, because today the public is more likely to think that he does his job “rather poorly” or “very poorly.”

The thinktank said Labour would need to win 36 per cent of the vote if it wanted to stay in power at the next election, expected in 2029. The party had won 33.7 per cent of the vote on July 4, and even a modest Conservative recovery, winning back votes from Reform UK, would see the Tories overtake Labour.

After returning to power in 2010, the Tories increased their share of the vote in three elections in a row before suffering a historic defeat under Rishi Sunak in July.

Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said: “It may seem extremely premature to be looking ahead to the next election just months after the last one.

“But faced with such a volatile electorate, Labour must think not only about how to maintain its existing coalition, but also how to build on that broad but fragile support base if it is to have any chance of staying in power.”

Mr Tryl said that if Labour failed to clear the 36 per cent threshold, the party could be voted out of power “without even losing a single vote”.

Meanwhile, Professor Sir John Curtice warned delegates at the Labour conference on Sunday that Sir Keir's dire message about the state of the country “may go down badly”.