A lifestyle coach with no political experience and a criminal past – The Irish Times

The fact that an online lifestyle coach with no political or administrative experience, a criminal past and a job as a worker for a micro-party with ties to organized crime, has emerged from nowhere and is now shaking up the race for government in the country's largest city is a worrying sign of the direction Brazilian politics is heading.

Next month's mayoral election in São Paulo looked set to be an uninspiring choice between incumbent Ricardo Nunes and his left-wing challenger Guilherme Boulos, until coach Pablo Marçal threw his signature M-embossed baseball cap into the ring, turning a one-on-one contest into a three-way battle.

This is notable because Nunes is backed by the governor of São Paulo state and is endorsed by former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, while Boulos is the candidate of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Yet despite lacking support or the backing of a proper political party, 37-year-old Marçal, who is running as a sort of anti-politics outsider of the alt-right, has managed to leverage his millions of followers on social media to ensure his candidacy dominates the race and catapults him up in the polls.

As the race enters the home stretch before the first round of voting on October 6, Marçal, whose campaign is fuelled by little more than his polemical personality, still faces a battle for the top two spots that would take him to the runoff. But no matter which spot he ultimately finishes, his breakthrough in the race says a lot about the continued volatility of Brazilian democracy.

Above all, it clearly shows that the ousting of Bolsonaro – once an outsider and anti-system candidate himself – from the presidency in 2022 by Lula's return has not eradicated the anti-political animus that now moves large parts of Brazilian society. Marçal is not a pure-bred Bolsonarista. His emergence has thwarted Bolsonaro's own political calculations and caused tensions between the two camps.

Carlos, the former president's son, has publicly called the coach a “moron,” using language so beloved by the Brazilian far right. Rather than being Bolsonaro's natural heir, Marçal represents the emergence of the next generation of system-critical politicians, only that unlike Bolsonaro – who was a political subhuman for three decades before his presidency – he comes straight from the Wild West of the Brazilian social media universe and has no political background.

All politicians are aware of the increasing importance of social media in Brazilian elections. But Marçal's entire public persona was developed there. He is a natural at the emotional connection that drives interactions. His rivals may all be on social media, but by comparison their presence gives the impression of a digital campaign manager hovering over them.

Another aspect of his appeal is his wealth, and this is where Marçal's social media persona meets the growing political power of Brazil's evangelical movement. He has become a social media giant who sells expensive motivational courses and presents himself as a successful entrepreneur. His fortune – the largest ever made during a campaign – raises eyebrows, however, given how quickly it was amassed and that he was previously convicted of financial fraud.

But after a lost decade of economic stagnation and a public sphere ravaged by a lack of investment, more and more young Brazilians are pursuing a radical – sometimes libertarian – entrepreneurial vision for their lives. For many, it is not so important how Marçal got rich, but simply that he is rich. This also echoes the prosperity theology of Brazil's politically influential neo-Pentecostal churches, which most openly advocate an entrepreneurial vision of society.

Prosperity theology teaches that wealth is a sign of God's favor in this life. Marçal's successful career with evangelicals is a sign from God and helps explain why he does so well with them. Marçal himself does not identify as an evangelical, but says he grew up in a Pentecostal church and that is evident in his speech.

When he speaks of his political opponents relentlessly “persecuting” him, he places himself, for an evangelical audience, on the right side of a larger battle between good and evil. He once told a church congregation, “The more God blesses you, the more you will be persecuted.” In this context, the police investigation of him for money laundering only reinforces his followers' belief in him as a righteous outsider fighting against a corrupt system.

That may be so, but perhaps he has not completely put his criminal past behind him. It is notable that he is running for a party whose leaders have been recorded boasting about their contacts with São Paulo's criminal underworld, which is increasingly trying to convert profits from crime into political influence.

But whatever the truth about Marçal or his ultimate fate, the fact that he is in the running to govern Brazil's largest city points to the future challenges facing the country's traditional polity from a new generation of disruptive political outsiders.