Diamondbacks vs Brewers: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-21

This NL series continues on Saturday night when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field. MLB odds have Milwaukee as the favorite at -115, while the overall odds are at 8.5.

My prediction for the Diamondbacks vs. Brewers game is optimistic about the over, especially because of these two starting pitchers.

Read on to find out my MLB picks for Saturday, September 21st.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers prediction

My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at bet365)

My analysis

These are two of the best lineups in MLB. Both teams are in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP and OPS.

Both sides should be able to capitalize on this pitching duel. The Arizona Diamondbacks give the ball to right-hander Merrill Kelly, who is considered a good candidate for a fade.

Kelly has a 4.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP after 11 starts this season, but his underlying stats are more concerning. The right-hander has a 5.46 xERA and is in the 35th percentile or below in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard hit rate.

Meanwhile, right-hander Aaron Civale gets the ball for the Milwaukee Brewers. Civale is 7-8 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP after 29 starts this season. His analytics are also poor considering the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard hit rate.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Over 8.5

Merrill Kelly – Under 4.5 strikeouts

Willy Adames Over 0.5 hits

We'll also hide Kelly on the prop market, as he ranks in the 11th percentile in whiff rate and 20th percentile in strikeout rate. His strikeout prop currently sits at 4.5, a total he has failed to surpass in six of his last 10 starts.

If we exclude Kelly in a high-scoring game, a highly correlated outcome would be members of the Brewers getting some hits. Enter Willy Adames, who has a .412 batting average in 18 career appearances against Kelly.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds

Diamondbacks vs Brewers live odds

Opening odds Diamondbacks vs Brewers

• Money line: Arizona -105 | Milwaukee -115
• Execute line: Arizona +1.5 (-210) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+175)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-125) | Under 8 (+105)

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• Milwaukee opened as a -115 favorite and remained at that price until late Saturday morning.
• I expect this line to shorten as the D-backs outperform the Brewers in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
• The total amount was initially eight and has since been increased to 8.5.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Trend

Six of Arizona's last nine games have seen nine or more total runs scored. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers here.

Match info Diamondbacks vs Brewers

Diamondbacks vs Brewers: Latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Brewers weather

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