Nebraska could cost Harris victory over Trump

The US election in 2024 could be a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. A possible change in Nebraska could change the outcome.

Washington – November 2024 is approaching inexorably – and in the USA the hot phase before the US election is gradually beginning. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris each want to win the presidential race.

After the TV duel between the two opponents, the Democrat and the Republicans are now concentrating more on their high-profile appearances in which they try to win over groups of voters. When Americans cast their votes in the 2024 US election at the beginning of November, the so-called swing states will be in particular focus – but in the end the election could be decided in another state.

Shortly before the US election: Harris campaigns in swing states

In the 2024 US election, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia as well as Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin are considered swing states. Harris knows this too and has therefore focused her election campaign on appearances in these very states.

The Democrat is trying to set thematic accents that will attract media attention. In the recent past, North Carolina in particular has been of interest to the public. Joe Biden's successor was able to make significant gains here before the US election. On September 20, Harris' campaign team also launched a large-scale television campaign to put further pressure on Donald Trump over certain statements on the abortion ban.

During a visit to Wisconsin and after a speech in Georgia, incumbent Vice President Harris also indicated that she wants to focus more on the life-threatening risks of an abortion ban in the final weeks before the US election. The fact that Harris can score points with her issues against Trump in some states before the US election has been shown time and again by recent polls for the 2024 US election. But aside from the much-discussed swing states, another could prove to be decisive for the election.

Showdown before US election: Nebraska could change electoral system – far-reaching consequences for Harris

While polls for the US election continue to predict a close race between Harris and Trump, Nebraska's counting method in the election could ultimately make the difference between a Harris or Trump victory. Currently, Nebraska and Maine are the only two states in the US that split their votes in the Electoral College: the statewide winner receives two votes and each candidate receives one vote for each congressional district they win.

But a few weeks before the US election, voices in the Republican camp are pushing for a short-term change in the counting of votes. A change to a “winner-take-all” system is being considered. This is reported by, among others, the New York Times and Newsweek.

If there is a change before the election, a single district in the state could end up being the deciding factor. A single Republican senator from Omaha, Mike McDonnell, has so far steadfastly opposed the push by former President Trump, Republicans at the national level and the Nebraska Republican Party. But now it is uncertain whether he might give in after all.

Result of the 2024 US election: Harris against Trump – a few votes are crucial

If such a scenario were to occur, Donald Trump would almost certainly end up with the only electoral vote from Omaha and the surrounding area. That may not sound like much, but that one vote could prove to be the deciding factor.

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin but loses Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, the vote from Omaha could decide between a 270-268 Electoral College victory or a 269-269 tie. In the event of a tie, the House of Representatives would determine the winner.