Result prediction for Nebraska vs. Illinois by an expert football model

This Big Ten opener features a Friday night football tournament under the lights, pitting top-ranked, undefeated conference opponents against each other on the same field as Saturday, when No. 24 Illinois takes on No. 22 Nebraska on the road in Week 4 college football action.

Illinois is off to its best start since the 2011 season with a 3-0 overall record and a win over then-No. 1 ranked Kansas. They played against the 13th ranked defense in the country and allowed their opponents to average just under 7 points per game.

Nebraska hasn't been 3-0 since the 2016 season and has taken a big step in the right direction with former five-star recruit Dylan Raiola at quarterback, but also with a strong defense. This week, the team allowed just 6.7 points per game, which is eighth-best in the country.

What can we expect from this Big Ten duel this weekend?

To that end, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Illinois and Nebraska compare in this Week 4 college football game.

The simulations speak in favor of the home team, albeit in a close game.

SP+ predicts that Nebraska will likely defeat Illinois 24-16 and win the game by a projected 8-point margin.

The model gives the Cornhuskers a solid 71 percent chance of winning.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a winning percentage of 52.4.

According to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has the total score for the game set at 42.5, Nebraska is a slim 7.5-point favorite against Illinois.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for a straight-up win for Nebraska at -310 and for Illinois at +245.

When using this projection to bet on the game, here are some things to consider…

Other analysis models also suggest that the Cornhuskers will win this Big Ten opening game at home.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

In most updated computer simulations (69.4 percent), Nebraska emerges as the likely winner.

This leaves Illinois as the likely winner in the remaining 30.6 percent of sims.

The index predicts that Nebraska will outperform Illinois by 7.7 points on the same field, just enough for the Cornhuskers to make up the difference.

Nebraska is ranked sixth among Big Ten teams, has a 12.4 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs, and will win 8 games this season, according to FPI statistics.

This model predicts that Illinois will win seven games and have a 3.5 percent chance of making the 12-team playoffs.

When: Friday, September 20
Time: 7pm Central
TV: Fox Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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