The authority of the USA is also waning in America

Gonzalez, a harmless former diplomat who was nominated as a candidate by the opposition when its leader Maria Corina Machado was expelled, was forced to sign a document declaring Maduro the winner. This was the condition for his departure to Spain. After eight weeks of unrest and repression, the socialist dictatorship seems to be consolidated.

At almost any previous point in its history, the United States would have considered such a situation in its own hemisphere intolerable. The Monroe Doctrine had been anticipated by James Madison and Thomas Jefferson, and even by George Washington. The United States stayed out of European affairs, but in return retained a special interest in America.

Policy toward the Old World has oscillated between isolationism and interventionism. From World War II to the Iraq War, the United States was unusually interventionist, and now it appears to be returning to a more traditional approach.

But Latin America has always been in a different category. Politicians from both camps were clear that the United States could not remain indifferent to regimes in its backyard that started wars, exported chaos or provoked mass movements.

As Theodore Roosevelt put it in 1904: “Chronic misconduct or impotence leading to a general loosening of the bonds of civilized society may ultimately require the intervention of a civilized nation, and in the Western Hemisphere the adherence of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine may compel the United States, in flagrant cases of such misconduct or impotence, even reluctantly, to exercise international police power.”

Donald Trump, whom no one calls a neoconservative, recognized the power of this argument as early as 2017, when violence broke out in Venezuela following the dissolution of the National Assembly, in which the opposition parties had a majority.

“I do not rule out a military option for Venezuela,” he said. “It is our neighboring country. We have troops all over the world in places that are very, very far away. Venezuela is not very far away and people are suffering and dying.”

Since 2017, Venezuela has slipped from crisis to catastrophe. Around 7.7 million Venezuelans, more than a quarter of the population, have become refugees. Those who remained behind suffer from malnutrition and political oppression.

The displacement of the population is reason enough for the US to intervene. But there are other, no less compelling reasons. Venezuela has replaced Cuba as the local proxy for Russia, Iran and other hostile powers. It exports its ideology and finances subversive groups in neighboring democracies. And we should not ignore the fact that, with energy prices driven up by the Ukraine war, it is in everyone's interest for the oil companies to invest in a democratic Venezuela again.

Opinions are divided in Latin America. Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru and Uruguay have recognized Gonzalez as the legitimate president, while neighboring countries – Cuba, Nicaragua and Honduras – have recognized Maduro. Most countries, including those ruled by elected left-wing populists such as Chile, Colombia and Brazil, are remaining cautious, citing election irregularities and demanding more details. A decisive intervention now, while anger over the electoral fraud and arrests still runs high, would win many of these countries over to a new and democratic Venezuelan government.

Yet the United States does not seem willing to go beyond words of disapproval. I say “seems” because it is conceivable that things are happening in secret, that wavering generals are being interrogated, that the way is being prepared for a decisive coup.

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More likely, however, the US, preoccupied with its presidential election, lacks the energy to open a new front. The debacle in Iraq has changed public sentiment and shown how high the costs of intervention can be. But non-intervention also has its price. The consequences of remaining in the Bolivarian dictatorship include increased migratory pressure on the southern border, a local base for Wagner, the destabilization of the region (Hugo Chavez has taken on Colombia, Maduro has taken on Guyana) and, last but not least, further anti-Americanism spreading in Latin America if the yanquis look weak.

Not only in Latin America. What happens in Caracas is being watched closely in Moscow and Beijing. Non-intervention, as I said, has its price.