Arkansas vs Auburn score prediction by an expert football model

Two former West Division rivals face off in this opening game of SEC football when Arkansas takes on Auburn on the road on Saturday in Week 4 of college football.

Arkansas is 8 points away from being undefeated after a narrow road loss to Oklahoma State two weeks ago, but the team rebounded with a 10-point home win over UAB, ranking 11th nationally in run and pass production and 12th in the FBS in scoring offense.

Auburn made a change at quarterback after its home loss to Cal, trading Payton Thorne for Hank Brown, who helped revitalize the offense with his four touchdown passes in the win against New Mexico.

What can we learn from this weekend’s duel?

Let’s look at the SP+ prediction model to preview how Auburn and Arkansas compare in this Week 4 college football game.

So far, the simulations are on the home team's side in this opening game of SEC football.

SP+ predicts Auburn to defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 32 to 25 and win the game by a projected 7.1 points.

The model gives Auburn a 67 percent chance of a clear victory over Arkansas.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a winning percentage of 52.4.

According to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has the total score for the game set at 56.5, Auburn is the 3-point favorite against Arkansas.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for an outright Auburn win at -155 and for Arkansas at +135.

When using this projection to bet on the game, here are some things to consider…

Other analysis models also suggest that the Tigers will be able to handle the Hogs at home.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

Auburn is predicted to win the game in 58.6 percent of updated computer simulations.

This makes Arkansas the likely winner in the remaining 41.4 percent of sims.

The index predicts that Auburn will perform just 0.8 points better than Arkansas on the same field.

That wouldn't be enough for Auburn to reach the 3-point difference.

Auburn is ranked 10th among SEC teams with a two percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and is expected to win 6.2 games this season, according to FPI statistics.

This model assumes Arkansas will win 5.6 games and gives the Hogs a 1.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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