TCU at SMU odds, betting prediction for college football week 5

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) visit the arch rival from the other metropolis SMU Mustangs (2-1). TCU is a -3 favorite on the road and the sportsbooks are making the over/under at 58 points. TCU originally started as a -2.5 favorite, but the market has moved that number to a full field goal — far more than an insignificant half-point change (we'll get into why below).

Adjusted for the Vigorish (think of it as a sports betting tax), TCU has an implied probability of winning of 56.8%So far, the Horned Frogs are 2-1 against the spread, barely covering last week's final number (+2.5). The over is also 2-1, with 65 points enough to cover a final number of 61.5 against UCF.

What the TCU means at SMU Spread

When a point differential moves to or away from -3 (or +3), it is a notable and significant change – far more so than, say, 5.5 to 5. In recent history, 17% of college football games have clearly ended with a three-point difference. That means a move from -2.5 to -3 represents a 17% shift in the probability of winning, both for the team and for your betting action.

Moving a line to or from this important betting number requires respectable and “sharp” (professional) action. Other important numbers are 7 (14%) and 10 (9%).

TCU moving past -2.5 means that influential bettors favor TCU in this game and don't favor SMU enough to buy +3 (thus moving the line back to +2.5).

Last week we saw the same action with TCU-UCF. By an unfortunate coincidence we got -2.5 with UCF.

My bet on TCU at SMU

SMU announced a change at quarterback before the off week, which came as a surprise to some. Preston Stone suffered a serious leg injury late last season and didn't appear to be fully healthy in his first few games, leading head coach Rhett Lashlee to use Kevin Jennings instead. Jennings is a below-average passer with more mobile potential. Under his leadership, however, SMU's offense has faltered, scoring just 21 points per game (compared to 39.4 under Stone).

The Mustangs' offense was arrhythmic and inefficient, ranking only 99th in yards per play (4.6) despite running 2.47 plays per minute (32nd fastest).

TCU's defense has yet to put together a complete game – allowing 27 and 35 points to FBS opponents – but it is a touch more talented than BYU and Nevada, both of which held teams under 120 rushing yards and 30 points.

TCU's offense is quite capable of moving the ball against SMU's defense, which has seen a significant drop in performance since losing its stout defense. BYU and Nevada, two of the least efficient passing offenses in the FBS, managed 200 and 298 yards through the air, respectively.

All in all, TCU should win this game easily.

In the last 15 Iron Skillet matchups, Over has been the case in 11. However, last year's point total was well below the last 62.5 (just 51 points). When evaluating point totals, I like to target teams that I don't think can maintain their point total.

In this case, nothing SMU has shown offensively gives much reason for confidence that they will bring their scoring output to score over 58 points. There's a possibility — even a likely one — that SMU has used the off week to retool the offense to better suit Jennings' skill set, rather than force him into one that suits Stones (and previously Shane Buchelle's). Should they do that, and should the offense really click, then it could be another high-scoring affair between TCU and SMU.

But I bet it won't happen overnight.

Betting record 2024: 2-1

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