Poll: Trump and Harris neck and neck in swing states

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appear to be neck and neck in a new poll in the swing states.

According to an Emerson College poll conducted between September 15 and 18, the former president appears to be ahead of the vice president in Wisconsin (49 to 48 percent) and Pennsylvania (48 to 47 percent).

However, his lead is still within the margin of error of both states – 3 percent for Wisconsin and 3.2 percent for Pennsylvania – and is therefore too narrow to predict a winner.

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The latest poll by the New York Times and Siena College shows that the two presidential candidates were tied at 47 percent on September 19.

If Trump manages to win Wisconsin, he may not need to rely on support from Pennsylvania, Michigan or Nevada, given the state's importance in previous elections.

According to Britannica, the state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the presidential election, placing it in the middle of the pack among U.S. states in terms of the number of electoral votes each state receives in the presidential election.

This does not diminish the influence of the state in the election, because in four of the last six presidential elections the victory of the candidates there was decided by less than one percentage point difference, as US News reported.

The Encyclopedia of American Politics Ballotpedia It was also pointed out that between 1900 and 2016, Wisconsin determined the outcome of an election in 76.67 percent of all cases.

In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly won the state against Hillary Clinton by 0.7 percent, the source said, but in 2020 he narrowly lost it again to President Joe Biden by 0.7 percent.

Professor Bensel of Cornell University said of the survey: Newsweek that while the polls were “remarkably similar” to those of 2016 and 2020, “Harris may be somewhat weaker than Clinton or Biden.”

He stressed that it was still “difficult to say” how the current election polls compare to those in previous elections because pollsters had “changed their techniques” to “take into account the continued reluctance of Trump supporters to publicly declare their position.”

He concluded that “this is almost certainly going to be a very close election,” but he “would back the Democrats, but expect the Republicans to be evenly matched.”

If Trump loses Wisconsin, he would have to win Pennsylvania to have a chance at the presidency.

Trump could also win if he holds North Carolina, where he currently has a one-point lead over Harris, which is within the margin of error, and if he retakes Georgia and Arizona.

In Georgia, his lead over Harris widened to three points, and in Arizona it shrank from three points to one point, making it too close to predict given the margin of error.

If Harris can win all three Midwestern states, she would not need another state to be elected president in November.

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