Phillies vs. Mets: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-19

There will be a decisive showdown in the NL East at Citi Field, with the Philadelphia Phillies moving closer to the division title and the New York Mets battling for an NL wild card.

New York's rolling and reliable right-hander Luis Severino will face Philadelphia and our top Phillies vs. Mets predictions and MLB tips predict that the right-hander will hit the showers early.

Prediction for Phillies vs. Mets

My best bet
Luis Severino: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+135 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

The New York Mets are 15-4 in the race for the NL wildcards. An important reason for their position is the consistency that Luis Severino has brought to the mound as a regular player.

However, Severino was unable to prevail against the first-place Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday and the right-hander will face them again tonight.

It's a short turnaround to face a strong lineup with plenty of power. The Phillies have a solid .318 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season and a .332 overall since September, which ranks fourth. Severino also hit two home runs in his last game and had an above-average hard hit rate of 37.5%.

Additionally, while Severino has shot six full frames, he's still hit 17 or fewer in six of his last 10 appearances on the mound. The Mets also have a rested bullpen. They've reeled off two straight wins over the last two days, beating the Washington Nationals 20-1.

I expect Severino to have a harder time finding his way around Philly's lineup this time around, and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza will hand the ball off to one of his rested top relief pitchers before the end of the sixth inning. After all, New York's bullpen leads the majors with an xFIP of 3.22 in September and ranks sixth for the season with a 3.83.

Finally, we land on a decent number here as the early action in this market was one-sided to the downside.

Phillies vs. Mets – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Luis Severino Under 17.5 Outs

Over 8.5

Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks

The 8.5-plus runs are in line with Severino's also-missed sixth inning, but I'm also focusing on it because Philly is banking on right-hander Taijuan Walker, who is scheduled to make his first start since Aug. 28. Walker has a 6.50 ERA and 5.02 xFIP in 70 2/3 innings as a starter, and he's been tuned to a .397 wOBA.

Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper hit both home runs against Severino on Saturday, so I expect the Mets right-hander to be extra cautious tonight against the two-time NL MVP. Plus, Harper is no stranger to being selective when hitting, with a solid 11.3 BB% against right-handers this season.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Odds for Phillies vs. Mets

Phillies vs. Mets Live Odds

Phillies vs. Mets Opening Odds

• Money line: Philadelphia +120 | New York -140
• Execute line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-180) | New York -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Phillies vs. Mets Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• There have been little changes to this moneyline, with bet365 still trading the Mets at -140 to start.
• I don't think the Phillies will see any significant action either. As mentioned, the Mets are on a roll and Walker's performance as a starter is abysmal.
• This overall score has experienced further fluctuations. Pinnacle tested an overall score of 8.5 several times before returning it to the initial score of 8.0.
• While bet365 did not deviate from its opening price of 8.0, there was a rise of 10 cents to -120.

Trend Phillies vs. Mets

Luis Severino has recorded 17 or fewer outs in six of his last 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets here.

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