Nate Silver announces “good news” for Kamala Harris on her chances in the Electoral College

Nate Silver, the statistician and founder of the poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, announced good news for Vice President Kamala Harris in an episode of his podcast. Risky businesswith Maria Konnikova.

Silver said: “In contrast to this Labor Day period, where she received a lot of mediocre data from The New York Timesthe situation is now essentially back on track for a neck-and-neck election.”

Silver's election model combines polling data with simulations to predict election results. His approach adjusts poll weighting based on each pollster's timeliness, sample size, and historical accuracy.

For a presidential race, Silver runs millions of simulations using state-by-state polling data, accounting for the inherent uncertainties and variability of polling. The result is a probability forecast that predicts, for example, that a candidate has a 70 percent chance of winning if he is ahead in 70 percent of those simulations.

“Before the debate, Harris was ahead by about two percentage points. Now she appears to be ahead by about three percentage points. And there's quite a bit of high-quality data at the national level,” Silver said.

“Why is this number important? Well, the Electoral College bias favors Trump by about two and a half points according to our forecast, the Silver Bulletin forecast.”

“If Harris wins a majority of the vote by about two and a half percentage points or more, she will be a favorite in the Electoral College. If she wins by less than two and a half percentage points, she is unlikely to cross the finish line in states like Pennsylvania.”

“This is a good development for her,” Silver said, and his co-host Konnikova agreed, saying, “This is good news for Harris.”

Critics claim that the Electoral College is biased in favor of the Republican Party because of the way the electoral votes are distributed among the states, giving smaller, more rural states – many of which tend to vote Republican – a disproportionate influence.

Each state receives as many electors as its total representation in Congress. This means that even states with smaller populations receive at least three electoral votes, regardless of their size.

Supporters of the Electoral College say this electoral model balances power between populous and less populous states, ensuring that smaller states have a voice in presidential elections. It promotes a federalist system by preventing the dominance of large urban areas and encouraging candidates to address diverse regional concerns.

In recent elections, such as 2016 and 2020, there were different results in the referendum and the electoral college.

On Wednesday, Silver said Harris had a good day in the polls, with his averages showing the vice president leading former President Donald Trump by 3.1 percentage points nationally (49.1 percent to 46 percent).

Silver has been predicting Trump's chances of winning for weeks, but Harris has already started to catch up in the crucial swing states. This increases her chances of receiving the 270 electoral votes she needs in November.

Silver stressed, however, that the race is still close. “Harris was doing pretty mediocre in the national polls earlier this month,” Silver said.

“If those state polls also improve by a point or two in their favor, we could be at a point where the race is slightly in their favor. If not, we could again expect the race to swing slightly to Trump.”

“If you’re a Democrat and you look at these national polls, you can’t get too complacent,” Silver said.

Newsweek has emailed Nate Silver for comment.

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