Is Israel preparing for war with Hezbollah?

JERUSALEM (AP) — After Israel's defense minister declared a “new phase” of the war and an Israeli attack apparently caused explosions in electronic equipment in Lebanon, the threat of open combat between Israel and Hezbollah seems closer than ever.

Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict appear to be fading rapidly as Israel signals a desire to change the status quo in the north of the country, where it has been locked in a cross-border firefight with Hezbollah since October 8, a day after Hamas fired its opening salvo of the war.

In recent days, Israel has deployed a powerful military force to its northern border, the rhetoric of Israeli politicians has intensified, and the Israeli security cabinet has declared the return of tens of thousands of displaced people to their homes in northern Israel an official war aim.

Here's a look at how Israel is preparing for war with Lebanon:

Troops withdrawn from Gaza to the northern border

Although daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah escalated several times, the bitter enemies were careful to avoid a full-scale war.

That now appears to be changing, especially after pagers, walkie-talkies and other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20 people and injuring thousands more in a sophisticated attack that Hezbollah blamed on Israel.

“This is not something you do when you meet thousands of people and believe there will be no war,” said retired Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a warmongering group of former military commanders. “Why didn't we do it for 11 months? Because we weren't ready to go to war. What happens now? Israel is ready for war.”

As fighting in Gaza has subsided, Israel has been reinforcing its troops along the border with Lebanon, including the arrival this week of a powerful army division that has been involved in some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza.

The 98th Division is said to consist of thousands of soldiers, including paratroopers, infantry units and artillery, as well as elite units specially trained for operations behind enemy lines. Its deployment was confirmed by an official familiar with the matter, who spoke about the troop movements on condition of anonymity.

The division played a key role in Gaza, leading the army's operations in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive inflicted heavy casualties among Hamas fighters and tunnels, but also caused massive damage, displacing thousands of Palestinians and causing numerous civilian deaths. Israel says Hamas endangers civilians by hiding in residential areas.

The military also said it had conducted a series of exercises along the border this week.

“The mission is clear,” said Major General Ori Gordin, who heads Israel's Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security situation as quickly as possible.”

A “new phase” of the war

The military movements were accompanied by tougher rhetoric from the Israeli leadership, which said its patience was running out.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared on Wednesday evening the beginning of a “new phase” of the war as Israel turns its focus on Hezbollah. “The center of gravity is shifting north, diverting resources and forces,” he said.

He spoke a day after the Israeli cabinet declared the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel an official war aim. The move was largely symbolic – Israeli leaders have long promised to bring those residents home. But the emphasis on the importance of that goal signaled a tougher stance.

After a meeting with senior security officials on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “We will return the residents of the north safely to their homes.”

Netanyahu sent a similarly tough message when he dispatched a senior US envoy to the region this week to ease tensions.

An official familiar with the meeting told the Associated Press that envoy Amos Hochstein told Netanyahu that escalating the conflict with Hezbollah would not help the evacuated Israelis return to their homeland.

Netanyahu told Hochstein that the residents could not return without “a fundamental change in the security situation in the north,” according to a statement from his office. The statement said that while Netanyahu “appreciates and respects” U.S. support, Israel “will do whatever is necessary to ensure its security.”

Is war inevitable?

Israeli media reported on Wednesday that the government had not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.

Much will depend on Hezbollah's response. The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to give an important speech on Thursday.

But public opinion in Israel seems to favor tougher action against Hezbollah.

A poll conducted by the Jerusalem-based Israeli Democracy Institute think tank in late August found that 67 percent of Jewish respondents believed Israel should intensify its response to Hezbollah. This included 46 percent of Jewish respondents who believed Israel should launch a full-scale offensive against Lebanese infrastructure and 21 percent who wanted a more intensive response that avoided attacks on Hezbollah infrastructure.

“There is a lot of social pressure to go to war and win,” said Avivi, the retired general. “Unless Hezbollah says tomorrow morning, 'OK, we got the message. We are withdrawing from southern Lebanon,' war is imminent.”

Such a war would almost certainly have devastating consequences for both sides.

Since October 8, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli attacks, most of them fighters from Hezbollah and other armed groups, but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by attacks from Lebanon.

Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon during its month-long war against Hezbollah in 2006, which ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened even harsher measures this time, saying the scenes of destruction seen in Gaza will be repeated in Lebanon.

But Hezbollah has also expanded its capabilities since 2006. It has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which are believed to have guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. Hezbollah has also developed an increasingly sophisticated drone fleet.

Hezbollah would be able to attack all parts of Israel, bring life in Israel to a standstill and force hundreds of thousands of Israelis to flee.

Associated Press writer Natalie Melzer in Jerusalem contributed to this report.