3 Key Score Prediction for Iowa Football vs Minnesota in 2024

IOWA CITY – There has been no shortage of exciting games in the recent history of the Floyd-Rosedale rivalry.

Last year, Minnesota won by two points. The year before that, Iowa won by three points. Iowa won the 2021 game by five points. Through 2015, seven of the last nine meetings were decided by 10 points or less.

“That kind of tells you something about the nature of the series and what it's about,” Iowa's Kirk Ferentz said this week. “I guess this game will probably be based on that. Like I said, they've got a very good football team, they're experienced, they play extremely hard, they're well coached and they're playing with a lot of confidence right now, and rightly so.”

Here are three key factors that will help the Hawkeyes take the Floyd of Rosedale trophy to Iowa City:

Which team establishes the run better?

Saturday's game will feature two Big Ten opponents that rely heavily on running.

Kaleb Johnson headlines Iowa's running attack. Johnson is the nation's leading rusher with 479 rushing yards and averages 7.9 yards per carry. He is responsible for six of Iowa's ten offensive touchdowns this season.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has Darius Taylor and Marcus Major. Taylor has taken over the bulk of the Gophers' duties in the last two games after missing the season opener against North Carolina.

Taylor received honorable mention All-Big Ten honors last year after rushing for 799 yards in six games as a freshman, averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

The two teams' running attack won't be the only factor on Saturday – Iowa did, after all, outperform Mohamed Ibrahim's 263-yard performance in the last game in Minneapolis – but Iowa has never lost to a PJ Fleck-led Minnesota team when it had the advantage in rushing yards.

How well does the offensive line protect Cade McNamara?

The connection between better pass defense and better results from quarterback Cade McNamara was clearly visible for the Hawkeyes in the first three games of the season.

When Iowa keeps McNamara free, he has completed 71 percent of his passes this season, according to Pro Football Focus. When he's under pressure, his completion rate is just 42.9 percent.

Fortunately for Iowa, McNamara remained clean on 71.9 percent of dropbacks, according to PFF, up from 68.3 percent in 2023. (Most Big Ten quarterbacks are between 68 and 78 percent so far this year.)

But Iowa's pass defense wasn't perfect. The Hawkeyes allowed two sacks last week, even though Troy's defense hadn't recorded a single sack before, including one where Troy ran just three defenders.

Minnesota's defense, with seven sacks in three games, should pose a bigger threat this week than Troy did last week.

Who will win the battle of the special teams?

Especially in a series as competitive as the Floyd-Rosedale rivalry, a special teams play can often make the difference.

Minnesota learned this the hard way in Week 1 against North Carolina when kicker Dragan Kesich missed a potentially game-winning 47-yard field goal as time expired in the Gophers' 19-17 loss.

However, Kesich was the 2023 Big Ten Kicker of the Year and punter Mark Crawford received honorable mention in the Big Ten.

“I would be remiss if I didn't mention their kicker and punter,” Ferentz said, speaking of Minnesota in the opening remarks of his press conference Tuesday. “They have two outstanding specialists. … They're really good in that area.”

Iowa's Drew Stevens, meanwhile, has made 5 of 5 field goals in 2024. Freshman punter Rhys Dakin has averaged 42 yards per punt, with seven punts inside the 20-yard line versus two touchbacks. Punt coverage was a problem for Iowa in Week 3, when Troy returned a punt 77 yards for a touchdown.

forecast

On paper, Iowa appears to be the better team, but as is often the case with Iowa-Minnesota games, this game could be a neck-and-neck contest.

Iowa 21, Minnesota 17

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