Wintermute launches multi-chain prediction market ahead of US elections

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute said it will create a new prediction market specifically targeting the US election. The platform, called OutcomeMarket, is set to launch next week on three chains, including Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum.

New tokens, including TRUMP and HARRIS, will be tradable across platforms upon launch.

Developed with the support of Chaos Labs' Edge Proofs Oracle, OutcomeMarket will operate without intermediaries and transaction fees.

The platform is designed to improve liquidity, efficiency, and accessibility, as well as enable seamless cross-chain and multi-venue trading. Chaos Labs' technology will ensure accurate data across platforms, which is critical to maintaining market integrity.

“What sets our market and data integrity engine apart is the unique integration of advanced AI and LLMs with risk models,” explained Omer Goldberg, CEO of Chaos Labs. “This system is designed to provide reliable, tamper-proof data feeds and real-time risk assessment.”

A crazy choice

Wintermute also plans to introduce two new tokens, TRUMP and HARRIS, at launch. More listings are expected in the future.

According to Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy, OutcomeMarket will be the first platform of its kind that is accessible to everyone and has no costs. These features could give the platform an edge over competing prediction markets.

“Nobody had developed it without permission and without charging minting or transaction fees,” Gaevoy explained.

Upon its debut, Wintermute's platform will directly compete with Polymarket, the leading blockchain-based prediction market known for its recent polls related to the upcoming US elections.

Regulatory challenges

Blockchain-based prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular, especially in the political sphere. But the innovative approach is also increasingly coming under the scrutiny of regulators.

According to a recent report from Bloomberg, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is actively monitoring offshore betting platforms that allow U.S. traders to bet on election results. Regulators are prepared to take enforcement action against those that would allow U.S. traders to participate in unregulated election betting.

CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said the CFTC will use its enforcement powers against anyone who violates the law – including offshore platforms – to ensure this behavior ends.

One of the main targets is Polymarket, whose trading volume is around one billion dollars and is linked to various results of the US elections.

In fact, the platform has been facing regulatory hurdles in the US since 2022, when the CFTC took enforcement action against Polymarket, resulting in a $1.4 million settlement as the platform failed to register with the commission and did not offer trading services to US clients.

Although Polymarket has agreed to restrict access for US traders, reports suggest that American users can still be active on the platform.

Despite ongoing challenges, the platform continues to see massive user engagement and increasing mentions by major news outlets. Polymarket's popularity has expanded beyond the blockchain community.

Last month, Bloomberg integrated Polymarket's data on US presidential election odds into its terminal to give its users better access to real-time forecast information.

Kalshi, another event market that allows users to trade on the outcome of various events, is also encountering similar regulatory difficulties. In September, the CFTC banned Kalshi from offering contracts related to congressional elections.

After the CFTC cracked down, a federal district court ruled in Kalshi's favor. The court ruled that the CFTC had exceeded its authority to block those contracts, but the agency did not abandon the case.

The CFTC recently appealed the court's ruling. The case is still ongoing, and the federal appeals court granted Kalshi a stay on offering these contracts while the case continues to be reviewed.

The CFTC requested a stay on the grounds that allowing these bets posed a threat to national security and could negatively impact public perceptions of the election. The CFTC's scrutiny has not stopped Wintermute from entering the market with a new multi-chain prediction market.