Simulator names top 4 of Premier League 2024/25 and makes gloomy forecast for Newcastle

A supercomputer that predicts the outcome of all Gallagher Premiership matches based on team strength and betting market odds has revealed the semi-finalists for 2024/25 and also predicted that Newcastle will finish bottom of the table without a single win.

The probability model that predicted last month that the currently unbeaten South African team would win all six of their Rugby Championship matches (they are four out of four so far) has simulated every upcoming Premiership match 10,000 times to produce an average league table.

Defending champions Northampton are predicted to finish first in the 2024/25 regular season with 11 wins and a draw from their 18-game schedule, securing a place in the semi-finals at home to Franklin's Gardens.

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Second-placed Saracens are also expected to finish on 59 points with 11 wins, Bath are a point behind in third place with 10 wins and Leicester are in the fourth and final play-off spot with 56 points and 11 wins. That would mean Northampton face Leicester at home in the semi-finals and Saracens host Bath.

Sale and Bristol will be the two teams unlucky not to make the last four, having finished fifth and sixth respectively in the Premiership SuperComputer competition, overseen by the experts at Grosvenor Sport, with 54 and 53 points respectively.

After finishing bottom of the 2023/24 season, Newcastle are set to suffer another defeat in the new season. They are expected to finish the season with just seven points and zero wins. Such a result would see them face the Championship's number one team in a home and away play-off to avoid relegation.

A Grosvenor Sport spokesman said: “It promises to be a season of change in the Gallagher Premiership, with new faces across the league, many new captains taking charge of their teams and the reintroduction of promotion and relegation.

“The Northampton Saints have had an outstanding season, largely due to the strong presence of Courtney Lawes in the team, but his departure is not expected to weaken the team too much, according to SuperComputer.

“Saracens are also missing many big names like Owen Farrell, but they too are expected to have a great season. At the other end of the table, Newcastle's time in the Premiership looks to be in jeopardy with the re-introduction of relegation rules.”