Blue Jays vs. Rangers: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-17

It may not be the season the Toronto Blue Jays had envisioned, but at least they will try to end it on a high note by taking on the Texas Rangers tonight.

Yes, the Jays are riding high after their win over the St. Louis Cardinals and will look to carry that momentum into Tuesday night's series opener, which I predict will be a high-scoring Blue Jays-Rangers game.

See why I'm betting on the Over in my MLB picks for September 17.

Prediction for Blue Jays vs. Rangers

My best bet
Over 7.5 (-122 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

If Chris Bassitt faces Nathan Eovaldi in today's opener, it would be no surprise if the total score was 7.5…if we were in 2021.

Yes, that total seems to give starting pitchers credit more for their names than their numbers. And these two pitchers have a lot in common heading into this matchup: They're both experienced right-handers, and both were very inconsistent in 2024.

Let's start with Eovaldi. The Texas Rangers starter is throwing to a 3.90 expected ERA while allowing his opponents a .250 expected batting average, which puts them in the 55th and 36th percentile among qualified MLB pitchers.

Eovaldi will have to deal with a much improved Toronto Blue Jays lineup.

Toronto has undoubtedly become more exciting to watch post-trading deadline as the team has given younger players more playing time and is trying to figure out what they have for the future (and it doesn't hurt that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to make waves).

And who would have thought? The Jays have won more baseball games since August 1, going 21-19 with a +34 run differential, with offense being a major catalyst. In fact, Toronto ranks eighth in batting average, seventh in OPS and fifth in wRC+ during that span.

Meanwhile, the ups and downs have arguably been even more extreme for Bassitt, who has a 4.26 ERA, allows a .256 xBA, and has allowed three or more earned runs in nine of his last 12 starts. While the Rangers' lineup hasn't performed as expected this season, there are still plenty of dangerous hitters in this lineup who are more than capable of taking advantage of some bad pitches.

Additionally, considering the Rangers and Blue Jays rank 23rd and 27th respectively in terms of bullpen xFIP, the overall score for this matchup just doesn't look right. I'm hoping enough points are scored to push the game above 7.5 tonight.

Prop for Blue Jays star player

My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+185 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

Since the Blue Jays have a lot of young hitters in their lineup right now, not many guys have much experience against Eovaldi tonight, so they'll probably get some pointers from Guerrero.

You know by now that Vladdy is having a strong comeback season and is a top-notch run producer. Guerrero comes into this game with a .319 batting average, .938 OPS, 28 home runs and 96 runs batted in.

Not only is the Blue Jays' star first baseman on the field this season, he has great career numbers against Eovaldi. In 20 career at-bats against Eovaldi, Vladdy has seven hits, including a double and a home run, while only allowing two strikeouts. That's good for a .291 xBA and a .469 xSLG.

Vladdy has scored at least one run in eight of his last 14 games, so +185 odds for another chance are too good to pass up. Plus, this play is rated as a five-star play according to our Covers Prop Projections.

Odds for Blue Jays vs. Rangers

Blue Jays vs Rangers live odds

Opening odds Blue Jays vs. Rangers

• Money line: Toronto +120 | Texas -140
• Execute line: Toronto +1.5 -180 | Texas -1.5 +150
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Blue Jays vs. Rangers Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup at +120, but early bettors saw some value in the road win as Toronto is now in the +115 range.
• Both AL teams are having a disappointing season, but Toronto is on track for this matchup with three straight wins, while Texas has lost five of six games.
• The total value was 7.5 and remained unchanged until Tuesday afternoon.
• As mentioned above, that number seems too low when you consider Toronto's improved offense, Bassitt's inconsistent performance, and a bullpen that has been one of the worst in baseball this season.

Trend Blue Jays vs. Rangers

The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 37 of their last 54 road games, returning +16.00 units and a 20% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rangers here.

Match info Blue Jays vs Rangers

The latest injuries at the Blue Jays vs. Rangers game

Weather Blue Jays vs. Rangers

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