Justin Trudeau's future as Canadian Prime Minister is uncertain

According to CBC, it was one of the closest three-way races in recent history, with the frontrunners changing positions throughout the count.

This is also Trudeau's party's second consecutive by-election defeat in less than three months. This result is likely to increase the pressure on the Prime Minister to resign.

Trudeau was already facing calls from his party to resign after losing Toronto-St. Paul – a safe seat in downtown Toronto that the Liberals had held since 1993 – to the Conservatives in a by-election in June, according to CTV News.

Last year, the Liberal Party was significantly behind the Conservative Party in the federal polls, now polling at 25 percent, while the Conservatives are polling at 43 percent.

An Ipsos poll conducted between September 5 and 9, 2024, found an approval rating of 33%. Two-thirds of Canadians disapproved of his leadership, saying they were disappointed with the cost of living and the housing crisis.

His conservative rival Pierre Poilievre was the favourite for the office of prime minister with 45 percent, while Trudeau was at 26 percent.

Last Friday, Trudeau told Montreal radio station CJAD 800 that he would not resign if his party lost the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun election and vowed to remain as party leader until the next election in October 2025.

Before the election results were announced, longtime Liberal supporter and strategist Andrew Perez said another defeat would be “another nail in Justin Trudeau's coffin.”

“If Trudeau's Liberals cannot hold on to this safe seat, it will spell even greater trouble for the party's prospects in Quebec and across Canada in a crucial election year,” he said in an X-post on Tuesday.

“It's going to be really hard for them to get around the narrative that the government is basically finished,” Lori Turnbull, a Canadian political analyst and professor at Dalhousie University, told Politico.

It remains unclear whether Trudeau's government will remain in power until the next federal election.

According to CBC, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has promised to table a motion of no confidence in Trudeau's government “at the earliest possible opportunity” when Parliament reconvenes in order to bring about new elections at the federal level.

However, to trigger new elections, Poilievre would need the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois – and according to CBC, it is unclear whether any of the parties will support the motion or not.