Second Trump assassination attempt does not change the state of the race

The second failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump does not appear to have dramatically changed the expected election outcome.

Prediction markets have not moved from where they were before Sunday's assassination. Polymarket and PredictIt, two of the leading presidential election betting sites, show odds for Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris unchanged.

On Sunday, a man was caught with a rifle near Trump as he played golf at his club in West Palm Beach, Florida. Secret Service agents noticed a rifle barrel sticking out of the bushes about 350 yards from where Trump was located and shot the man, who fled in a car. He was later arrested and charged with two weapons offenses.

It's worth noting that prediction markets are not the same as election polls, which ask respondents who they plan to vote for in the upcoming election. Prediction markets are essentially betting odds based on how much a bettor is willing to pay to receive a $1 payout for a Harris or Trump win. You can think of it as an options contract for a presidential victory.

Despite the foiled assassination attempt on Trump on Sunday, the second since July, bettors have not changed their minds about the outcome of the election. Polymarket's odds show Harris as the slight favorite with a 50 percent chance of becoming president, while Trump has just 49 percent. The betting site has been offering these odds for Harris and Trump since September 12.

Meanwhile, Harris' odds are slightly higher on PredictIt: a bettor needs to wager 57 cents to win $1. Trump's odds remain at 47 cents, where they were last week.

A spokesperson for PredictIt said that it does not comment on “trader arguments” as a matter of policy. The Trump campaign team and Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.

It is not only prediction markets that assume that the outcome of the presidential election campaign will not change. A top economist at UBS also does not expect any significant impact on the status of the race.

“In general, political violence does not affect the outcome of elections,” Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC.

Immediately after the first assassination attempt on Trump, which took place on July 13 during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, there was movement in the prediction markets. According to PredictIt odds, odds for a Trump victory rose from 60 cents on July 12 to 69 cents on July 15.

There were, however, some key differences between the July assassination attempt and yesterday's: President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee and Trump himself was injured when a bullet grazed his ear. On Sunday, however, Secret Service agents intervened before he or anyone else was injured.

Donovan said a second assassination attempt would do little to shift the focus from what matters most to markets: each candidate's policy proposals and their electoral chances. “I don't think this situation changes anything at the moment,” Donovan said.

This story originally appeared on Fortune.com