Bengals vs. Chiefs odds, prediction for NFL week 2

A few weeks ago, it was a safe bet that the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals would meet in the AFC Championship game for the third time in four seasons. Only one team kept its end of the bargain in the season opener.

The Chiefs played well in their win over the Ravens, a rematch of last season's AFC Championship game, but the Bengals looked terrible in their loss to the Patriots despite being the week's biggest favorite. Will that carry over into this week's game? Here's our Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction and our best bet for NFL Week 2.

NFL Week 2 Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds

Given the drastic difference in performance between these teams last week, that point differential was pretty high at Kansas City -6. That number remains on several of the best sports betting apps, but others have bet it down to -5.5.

The Chiefs moneyline ranges from -240 to -250, while the Bengals moneyline ranges from +196 to +215.

The point total started at 47 points and has risen to 47.5 points at some bookies and 48 points at others, suggesting that bookies and bettors believe Cincinnati's terrible offensive performance last week was a fluke.

Why Kansas City could win as favorite

It's easy to score points in a home game against the Chiefs. As long as head coach Andy Reid is on the sidelines, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is throwing the passes, and the fans are loud at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City will be one of the toughest opponents in the NFL.

The Chiefs' offense didn't perform to its usual level throughout the 2023-24 regular season, and the team has been fixing those deficiencies in the offseason. Rookie WR Xavier Worthy was a sensation in last week's win over Baltimore. His dynamic skills should open up the offense for the always-reliable TE Travis Kelce and up-and-coming WR Rashee Rice.

Kansas City's defense is also reliable. In other words, the Chiefs have no weaknesses and betting on them to lose a home game is not for the faint of heart.

Why Cincinnati could win as an underdog

Anyone who saw last week's loss to New England can hardly imagine the Bengals being able to keep up with the Chiefs on the road. On the other hand, sometimes the quarterback can make all the difference, and the Bengals undoubtedly have an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow.

Did you know that Burrow's overall record against Patrick Mahomes is 3-1? That includes a win in the 2022 AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. The only loss came in the 2023 AFC Championship Game in Kansas City, which had to go into overtime before a late personal foul against the Bengals defense put KC within reach of a game-winning field goal.

It's hard to imagine the Bengals improving enough from last week to win this Sunday's game (especially if WR Tee Higgins isn't on the field for the second straight game), but Burrow is one of the quarterbacks who can carry his team forward.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction

The NFL is full of surprises and usually pulls everything back to the middle. The Bengals were so bad last week that there's no way they can play the Chiefs on the road a week later, right?

Some trends support the exact scenario the Bengals covered the spread on Sunday.

Teams that were favored by at least 6 points in Week 1 and then lost their game have rebounded greatly in the next game. These teams have a record of 20-5 and 19-6 against the spread in Week 2 of the NFL.

This is all an overreaction to a poor performance. In the preseason, the Bengals were considered one of the contenders for the AFC title. Should that status change so drastically after one week? Absolutely not.

There's parity in the NFL, and this is a great opportunity to take advantage of other bettors' overreactions. If possible, get Cincinnati +6, but +5.5 is fine, too. Look for the Bengals to at least hit that number on Sunday.