Ukrainians warn of encirclement if Russia advances in the east

The situation is critical, a Ukrainian military officer in the east near the front line south of Pokrovsk told the BBC.

The Russian military strategy currently appears to be aimed at encircling the city, which is an important transport hub in the region.

The officer, who wished to remain anonymous, said his military leadership wanted to hold their positions at all costs, which often resulted in the loss of troops and resources.

In his opinion, this approach has led to a series of “cauldrons”, i.e. large areas surrounded by Russian forces.

One of them is located south of Pokrovsk – between Nevelske, Hirnyk and Krasnohorivka.

“We do not plan to advance towards Donetsk in the near future, so why are we holding our positions near Nevelske if we lose Hirnyk?” the officer said.

He believes it would be far better to retreat to Hirnyk with minimal loss of resources and hold the positions there.

“If your enemy has more people and resources than you, this strategy is reckless,” the Ukrainian officer added.

“Look at the Donetsk region, it looks like an octopus. [To defend all the] Tentacles, you need a much larger number of positions, observation posts. You have to hold back much larger attack groups because the Russians are trying to attack from all sides.”

So instead of retreating and shortening the line to be defended, the brigades are being wiped out in fighting along the entire perimeter of the “cauldron”, simply because the main criterion for the generals' success is to hold their positions, the officer said.

Roman Pohorily, an analyst and co-founder of Deep State Map, which monitors the latest developments on the front lines in Ukraine, says Ukrainian troops have now withdrawn from the village of Nevelske to avoid being encircled.

This means that the danger of being surrounded is less acute. However, the retreat should have taken place much earlier, says the military officer at the front.

Lives and resources were wasted on something they could not have sustained anyway, he argues.

Russian troops are currently advancing towards Kurakhove, a town 35 kilometers south of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces in the area confirm that fighting in their sectors has intensified recently.

This development is also reflected in the daily briefings of the Ukrainian General Staff. On Thursday, 32 battles were reported in the direction of Pokrovsk and 48 in the direction of Kurakhove.

“They are trying to strengthen their flanks so they can get closer to Pokrovsk, half-encircle it and then start razing the city to the ground,” says Maj. Serhiy Tsekhotsky of the 59th Brigade.

Lieutenant Colonel Oleh Demyanenko, commander of a tank battalion of the 110th Brigade, also said that in addition to a direct attack on Pokrovsk, Russian forces would now also advance on the flanks.

However, he claims that the Russians are currently concentrating mainly on the southern flank – that is, in the direction of Kurakhove.

Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian positions in small groups and are often not accompanied by armored vehicles, soldiers say.

“They send two or three people to try to reach a certain point in the field,” explains Maj Tsekhotsky. “Then others try to get to that point. And when they have 10 to 15 people, they try to attack us.”

“Because of the flat terrain, defense and advance in the Kurakhove area is a challenge,” says Nasar Voytenkov of the 33rd Brigade.

“We are constantly shelling the fields. The Russians are losing their vehicles and people.”

He says his brigade is successfully holding its position at the front.

Kurakhove is connected to Pokrovsk by roads that are part of the infrastructure for the transport of troops and supplies to the front.

If the Russians capture this city, they can advance north and attack Pokrovsk from a new direction, says analyst Roman Pohorily.

Another possibility, he added, is that they will attack Ukrainian troops from behind in Vuhledar, a town in the southern part of the Donbass front line that the Russians have been trying to capture since the beginning of their large-scale invasion.

Due to strategic mistakes of the past, the only way left is to defend Pokrovsk and prevent the Russians from taking over the entire Donetsk region, said the front-line officer.

“To have a second Bakhmut,” he said, referring to the city in eastern Ukraine that Kyiv defended for nearly a year before retreating and now lies in ruins.

“[They] will throw many people there and let them die there.”