Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds for Week 3: Our Prediction and Best Bet

A new chapter in the civil war between No. 9 Oregon and Oregon State will be written Saturday afternoon when the Beavers welcome the Ducks to Reser Stadium.

Oregon is the clear favorite for the third week in a row and the bookmakers have not yet determined a correct point distribution for the Ducks.

CFB Week 3 Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds

Oregon was a 20.5-point favorite when Civil War odds were released in May. After two big wins by the Beavers and two uninspiring triumphs by the Ducks, the point differential at the best online sportsbooks is now Oregon -16.5.

The Ducks moneyline odds are around -800 depending on the bookmaker. Bettors expecting an upset can get the best moneyline odds for Oregon State at FanDuel Sportsbook (+580).

The total is 49.5 and the teams have a combined record of 3-1 in unders this season.

Oregon has dominated the rivalry of late, defeating Oregon State in 13 of the last 16 meetings. However, each team won the previous four meetings on home soil.

Why Oregon could win as favorite

Along with Notre Dame, the Ducks are the team most criticized by the media and college football fans. Oregon started the season ranked No. 3 in the AP poll and is now ranked No. 9.

Head coach Dan Lanning's team was a 44-point favorite against Idaho in Week 1 and narrowly held off the Vandals in a 24-14 victory. A walk-off field goal secured the Week 2 win against Boise State, and the Ducks allowed 192 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Broncos star RB Ashton Jeanty.

Oregon's ability to stop the run will be a deciding factor in Week 3. Oregon State averages 300 yards on the ground per game, ranking fifth in the FBS.

Dillon Gabriel has moved the ball well, and catchers Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden and Terrance Ferguson have combined for 355 yards. Gabriel has just four touchdown passes and needs to finish his drives to calm the crowd at Reser Stadium.

If the Ducks take an early lead and keep pushing, the Beaver faithful won't have an impact. It would also put Oregon in a good position to cover the three-possession lead.

Why Oregon State could win as an underdog

Now in the Big Ten and with a lot of preseason hype, Oregon State is more motivated than ever to beat its rivals. Staying in contention through the first two quarters is the first step to pulling off the upset.

Winning in the trenches on offense is just as important. Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson were an excellent backfield duo, combining for 475 rushing yards and six touchdowns.

Given the Ducks' struggles against Boise State and Jeanty, the Beavers will rely on them again this week.

Oregon State held San Diego State to 72 rushing yards in a 21-0 win in Week 2. The Ducks are much more efficient on the ground than the Aztecs, but Oregon's rushing attack appears to have waned with the departure of Bucky Irving.

As always when an underdog tries to beat one of the top teams in the country, Oregon State can't let itself get shot in the foot by losing turnovers and taking penalties.

Prediction for Oregon vs. Oregon State

I'm backing Oregon State +16.5 (-110 odds at Caesars Sportsbook) on Saturday. The point spread varies from bookmaker to bookmaker, and getting the 0.5 point lead at Caesars could be crucial if it comes down to covering the spread on the final possessions.

After two subpar performances at Autzen Stadium, it's hard to trust Oregon. The Ducks should sort things out at some point and get a big point differential, but I don't think that will happen in Oregon's first road game against a bitter rival.