Alabama vs. Wisconsin score prediction by an expert football model

This weekend brings us a remarkable SEC vs. Big Ten matchup in one of college football's most turbulent home-court teams, as Wisconsin hosts No. 4 Alabama on Saturday in head coach Kalen DeBoer's first big road game at the helm of the Crimson Tide.

Last week, Alabama escaped in another close game against USF, though the 42-16 score belies how close the game was. The Tide only led by one point until the third quarter and lost the battle for possession 3-0 before scoring four touchdowns in the fourth quarter and pulling away late.

Wisconsin is still trying to build its offense with transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke at the helm, but ranks 85th nationally in scoring offense and 89th in pass production after two games despite playing two inferior opponents to begin with.

What does the analytics predict for the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Alabama and Wisconsin compare in this Week 3 college football matchup.

As expected, simulations predict that the Crimson Tide will pull off a clear win against their Big Ten opponent this week.

SP+ predicts Alabama to defeat Wisconsin by a projected score of 33 to 15 and win the game by a projected 17.5 points.

The model gives the Tide a solid 86 percent chance of a clear victory in this duel.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a winning percentage of 51.6.

Alabama is the favorite by 16.5 points against Wisconsin, according to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, where the total for the game has been set at 49.5.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -820 and for Wisconsin at +550.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should consider the following…

Other analysis models also predict that the Crimson Tide will win the game at Camp Randall this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

Alabama emerged as the projected overall winner in an overwhelming 92 percent of the game's computer simulations, while Wisconsin won in the remaining 8 percent of simulations.

The index predicts that Alabama will perform 23 points better than Wisconsin on the same field, enough to make up the difference.

According to the index, Alabama is ranked third among SEC teams with a 79.3 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs and is expected to win 10.3 games this season.

Wisconsin will win 5.3 games in head coach Luke Fickell's second full season and has a 0.8 percent chance of finishing fourth in the Big Ten in the 12-team playoffs, according to the model.

When: Saturday, September 14
Time: 12pm ET, 11am CT
TV: Fox Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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