Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

In less than 54 days, Americans will face off in the 2024 election between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

The two candidates faced off in the presidential debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, the first since President Joe Biden resigned as Democratic president in July.

But polls conducted immediately before the debate show that voters overall have a less favorable opinion of the two candidates. So will the debate result in a victory for Harris?

Now pollsters are trying to figure out whether Trump's outbursts of anger or Harris' calm demeanor will have an impact across the country or in the swing states. All polls show that Harris “won” the debate in the eyes of voters.

So how will Harris actually fare against Trump in November?

Harris has a 2.8 percentage point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls compiled by Thirty-fiveEightOn average, Harris was slightly ahead of Trump in national polls.

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A series of polls conducted by YouGov and The Economist immediately before the debate (up to 10 September) showed that none of the major politicians are succeeding in winning the hearts of the voters.

All presidential candidates are in the red, and voters overall have varying degrees of negative opinion.

The only candidate who got off lightly is Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, whose popularity ratings are neutral.

Although Harris is at -3 overall, about 48 percent of voters have a positive opinion of her, higher than any other major politician.

Incumbent President Biden is the most affected: 56 percent of voters have a negative opinion of him, which corresponds to a net negative value of -13.

Where are they?

CNN's snap poll following the first debate between Trump and Harris shows that Harris managed to turn the tide among some voters.

After the debate, more voters now believe that Harris understands the problems of people like them better (44 percent) than Trump (40 percent). Before the debate, the opposite was true.

Another poll earlier this week (before the debate) by The New York Times/Siena College found that former President Trump led Harris overall by a narrow +1 percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent.

The same poll found that nearly a third of voters (28 percent) said they need to know more about Harris, compared to 9 percent who would say the same about Trump.

Although it is too early to say, the candidates' performances in the debate may have been a turning point.

State by state

A Morning Consult poll conducted before the debate shows significant differences in support for the president in 14 states. Trump and Harris are tied in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

However, each state tells a different story. A new poll from Morning Consult surveyed voters in 14 states through September 8 and found that Harris has the largest lead in Maryland, with a +32 point lead. Trump has his largest lead in Texas, with +8 points over Harris.

In Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the two candidates are tied, while in Florida Trump has a lead of only +2 points, less than in most polls in recent months.

Trump is also ahead by +2 percentage points in Arizona, a state that has voted Republican in every presidential election since the 1950s – with the exception of 2020, when Biden won the state by 0.3 percent.

Independent

In particular, our analysis of the Morning Consult poll mentioned above shows that independent voters in Texas and Florida are leaning toward Harris, even though both states are Trump strongholds.

In a decisive turnaround, Harris also leads Trump by 7.7 percent among independent voters, according to a new Emerson College poll (through September 4).

Whether Harris or Trump leads this election will be critical to winning the vote of independents. This group is also the most likely to vote for a third-party candidate, but with RFK Jr. out of the race, that share of independents has dropped to just 4 percent.

According to the Emerson College national poll, 49.5 percent of independents would vote for Harris, compared to 41.8 percent for Trump.

This is a significant jump from the same poll a month ago, in which Harris narrowly ahead of Trump among independent voters (46 percent to 45 percent).

However, 5 percent of independent voters say they are still undecided; and this elusive group of voters is difficult to pin down, with greater variation across polls and regions than for other demographics. Still, Harris can be credited with mobilizing the bipartisan voting base, whose support has been much stronger since Biden dropped out.

Demographics

According to a poll by Activote, Trump's main supporters continue to be male voters, those over 65, and white voters without a college degree.

However, in the 50-64 age group, which previously tended toward Trump, Harris and Trump are tied in this poll.

Harris performs best among young voters, female voters and black voters, where Harris has a lead of +52 points.

Meanwhile, Trump has a lead of +6 percentage points among Latino voters.

While Trump wins mainly rural voters with 63 percent, Harris is ahead among both urban residents (58 percent) and suburban residents (56 percent).

In 2016, suburban voters chose Trump over Hillary Clinton, while in 2020 Biden gave back the Democrats' lead.

Are the voters convinced?

A separate ABC News/An Ipsos poll running through August 27 shows that the American public believes Harris is doing a better job overall in her campaign, while Trump is running in the red.

The poll also suggests that a third of Trump supporters (31 percent) have reservations about their vote.

This is almost twice the number of people who support Harris with reservations (18 percent).

It seems that Harris has gained greater devotion among Democratic supporters, as the same poll in July found that 34 percent of Biden supporters had reservations about his candidacy.

In July, only 34 percent of Biden voters strongly supported his candidacy. In comparison, today 60 percent strongly support Harris.

However, one in five Harris voters acted primarily out of dislike for other candidates; only 9 percent of Trump supporters felt the same way.

While the overall gap between Harris and Trump remained largely unchanged at the DNC from August 19 to 22, the gap between the genders and the two candidates continued to widen.

The number of women supporting Harris has increased by three percentage points to 54 percent compared to pre-convention figures, while only 41 percent of women surveyed support Trump.

However, Trump also received an increase of +5 points among men during this period; 51 percent of men supported the Republican candidate.