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Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States | Blog | Politics

Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States | Blog | Politics

This is what US historian professor Allan Lichtman says

I have mentioned his predictive abilities before on this site.

Watch the video…


Low-stakes question based on the video

Questions:
1. What is Allan Lichtman’s model for predicting presidential elections based on?
2. How many keys does Allan Lichtman's model rely on and what is the focus?
3. Why did Allan Lichtman predict Donald Trump’s victory in 2016?
4. How accurate have Allan Licthman’s presidential election predictions been in recent years?
5. What are some examples of the keys used by Allan Lichtman to predict election results?
6. How does Allan Lichtman determine whether a key in his model is true or false?
7. Can you explain how the performance of the White House Party affects Allan Lichtman’s prediction model?

Correct answers:
1. Allan Lichtman's model for predicting presidential elections is based on 13 keys that he developed in 1981 with his friend, a geophysicist.
2. Allan Lichtman's model is based on 13 keys that focus primarily on the strength and performance of the White House Party rather than the candidates themselves.
3. Allan Lichtman predicted that Donald Trump would win in 2016 because his model indicated that the key factors were in Trump's favor.
4. Allan Lichtman has been extremely accurate with his presidential election predictions in recent years: He correctly predicted both Trump's victory in 2016 and Biden's victory in 2020.
5. Some of the key factors used by Allan Lichtman include winning seats in the House of Representatives, length of term, economic growth, significant political changes, and social unrest during the term.
6. Allan Lichtman determines whether a key is true or false based on specific criteria related to each key, such as House seat gains, economic indicators, and political changes.
7. The party's performance in the White House, including factors such as seat gains in the House of Representatives, economic growth, political changes and social unrest, directly impacts Allan Lichtman's predictive model for determining the next President of the United States.

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