Steve Eisman has a new verdict on Donald Trump's chances in the White House

Eisman was not alone in calling for a Trump victory, although his belief was shared by almost everyone outside the Republican candidate's camp. Prediction markets estimated the chance of a second Trump presidency at around 70 percent, which was still exceptionally high.

Trump's opponent at the time was President Joe Biden, and the incumbent's campaign seemed to be at an end as it received less and less support from influential Democratic politicians.

Ten days after Eisman's second call, Biden surprised many by withdrawing from the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris took the baton and the same betting markets now see her as the favorite to face Trump in November.

Eisman is still convinced of Trump's victory, but admitted in an interview with Business Insider in early September that the election campaign would look very different without Biden.

“It's certainly not 100% certain,” Eisman told BI when asked about the chances of a Trump victory. “I expect Trump will probably win anyway, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.”

How this fall’s winner will impact the markets

The Big Short investor has made his fortune by making bold decisions that deviate from the consensus, and he is certainly not afraid to speak his mind – even if it causes a stir.

Despite his bullish assessment of Trump, Eisman – who voted for Biden in 2020 – has not openly endorsed either candidate. However, he has not come across as particularly sympathetic to Harris, who he believes is not open about her views.

“She's more progressive,” Eisman said of Harris. “I mean, she's said she's for universal health care, she's against fracking, etc. And I'm not telling anyone not to be for universal health care or against fracking. It's just that deep down she seems more left-wing to me than Biden, but she's running away from that.”

Each candidate's positioning and messaging are crucial because they could determine the winner of this week's debate between Trump and Harris, according to Eisman. The face-off could have a big impact on the dynamic, as the debate with Biden in late June did for Trump.

“Basically, the more he portrays her as radical left, the better for him, and the more she portrays him as unpredictable, the better for her,” Eisman said. “That's how the debate will play out.”

Although partisans view this year's election as an existential choice, Eisman says investors don't need to worry too much about the outcome.

“I don’t think it matters to the overall market who is president,” Eisman said.

There is a big caveat to that statement. Eisman explained that U.S. stocks should definitely hold up well as long as there is a split majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. However, if the same party controls the White House and Congress, things could be different.

“If Harris wins and both houses of Congress go to the Democrats, the market would probably experience a very large correction,” Eisman said. “Because people would be worried that they could get a lot of the tax stuff they're talking about passed, which the market wouldn't like. So a Harris win would be negative for the market, at least in the short term.”

Conversely, a red wave would be fine for the broader market, but potentially damaging for sectors and industries such as green energy, Eisman estimates.

“If Trump wins and both houses are Republican, the market will be fine, but there will be certain sectors that will not do well and certain sectors that will do well.”

Regardless of who wins in November, investors of all political stripes can at least take comfort in Eisman's firm belief that there will be no repeat of the financial crisis.