“Election Nostradamus” predicts who will win the 2024 US election

Published on 7 September 2024 at 12:00 from Jasmine D.

Political Nostradamus Allan Lichtman has predicted who will win the 2024 US elections based on his famous “13 Keys to the White House” model.

After Joe Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's candidate, Donald Trump claimed that she would be easier to beat in the 2024 US elections. After his assassination attempt, self-proclaimed clairvoyant Craig Hamilton, also known as the “new Nostradamus”, predicted that Trump could win the election.

But now historian Allan Lichtman, dubbed the Nostradamus of the presidential election, has predicted that Harris, whom Trump is said to fear, will beat Donald Trump in the upcoming election.

Election Nostradamus Allan Lichtman predicts Harris will beat Trump

Allan Lichtman, Professor at the American University, Has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections. For example, in 2016 he predicted that Trump would beat Hillary Clinton, and in 2020 he predicted that Joe Biden would win against Trump.

The historian has now predicted that Harris will beat Trump in the November 5 election and that the Democrats will keep the White House. In a video released by the New York Times was published, Lichtman said:

The Democrats will keep the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. At least that's my prediction for this race.

According to CNBC, Lichtman uses his “13 Keys to the White House” model to predict election results, which includes factors such as economic stability and the absence of major scandals. He developed the unique system in the 1980s together with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

Lichtman's prediction model, which has proven reliable for decades, is based on a true-or-false system with 13 conditions. If six or more statements are false, the challenger is predicted to be the winner. The thirteen statements are as follows:

True statements

1. Charisma of the challenger: The candidate of the challenging party is neither charismatic nor a national hero.
2. Scandals: The current government has been spared from major scandals.
3. Political change: The incumbent government makes important changes in national policy.
4. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term of office.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the legislative sessions equals or exceeds the average growth of the two previous legislative sessions.
7. Third Party: There is no significant third or independent campaign.
8. Competition: There is no serious competition for the established party nomination.

False statements

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the established party has more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Incumbency: The candidate of the incumbent party is the incumbent President.
3. Charisma of the incumbent: The candidate of the incumbent party is charismatic or a national hero.

Undecided statements

1. Foreign policy/military failure: The current government has no major failures in foreign policy or military affairs.
2. Foreign policy/military success: The incumbent government has achieved great success in foreign policy or military affairs.

According to Lichtman, the last two keys, which concern foreign policy, are “delicate” and can tip over at any time. Regardless of whether both statements tip over, they would “not be enough” for Trump to “take back the White House.” He added:

The keys will definitely work. They are the constant north star of political prediction. The outcome depends on you. Also, go vote.

Who is Allan Lichtman, the “Nostradamus” of the presidential election?

Allan Lichtman is a renowned American political historian and professor at the American University in Washington, DC He is best known for his “13 Keys to the White House.” He has earned the title of “Election Nostradamus” due to his extremely accurate predictions, which are based on historical patterns and data rather than opinion polls.

His expertise goes beyond predictions; he is also a published author and foreign media commentator on American political history, elections, and civil rights issues, as the website of the American University He has written several influential books, including The case for impeachment – a national bestseller in independent bookstores – and Repeal the Second Amendment. His book White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement was a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award in the non-fiction category. Lichtman was also awarded Rise worldwide listed as the 85th most influential geopolitical expert in the world.

Also interesting:

Kamala Harris accused of lying by Donald Trump: “She never worked there”

The Internet's 'Most Notorious' Astrologer Predicts Who the Next US President Will Be

Donald Trump's latest nickname for Kamala Harris is confusing – this is what it could mean

Sources used:

New York Post: Election “Nostradamus” predicts Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election

CNBC: Harris will beat Trump, says election forecast legend Allan Lichtman

American University website: Faculty Profile: Allan Lichtman

Translated from English by Ohmymag Germany