Scientist Allan Lichtman predicts whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election

He is (almost) always right
Professor predicts outcome of US election

07.09.2024, 17:23

Listen to article

For 40 years, Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of the US presidential election – with one exception. Now the political scientist is commenting on the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Lichtman's forecast model shows a clear winner.

The US political scientist and historian Allan Lichtman is a luminary in his field. Since 1984, the now 77-year-old has been using a model to predict the outcome of the country's presidential elections – with resounding success. With the exception of Al Gore's narrow defeat in 2000, Lichtman has always been right.

Now the expert has given his prediction for the election next November. According to this, Kamala Harris will win the election against Donald Trump and become the first female president of the USA. The political scientist announced this in a video in the “New York Post”.

Lichtman's model is not based on poll results, but on 13 questions about the candidate of the incumbent's party, so-called “keys,” which can be answered with “true” or “false.” If you answer at least six of these questions with “false,” then, according to Lichtman, a change of power in Washington is imminent. Lichtman developed the system with statistician Jack Moshman on the basis of historical election data.

Harris's advantages include the lack of a major scandal, the lack of a significant third candidate (Robert F. Kennedy has dropped out of the race) and the satisfactory economic development under President Joe Biden. Trump is scoring points, among other things, with the Republicans' victory in the 2022 midterm congressional elections and because Harris is not the incumbent.

Even though two questions about foreign policy developments cannot yet be conclusively answered, eight “keys” speak in favor of Harris, meaning Trump has no chance of moving into the White House again. “Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States,” says Lichtman at the end of the video. “At least that is my prediction for this race. But the outcome depends on you. So go vote.”