This will be Wall Street's first $5 trillion stock

It wasn't that long ago that investors were wondering which stock would be the first to reach a $1 trillion market cap. Today, seven stocks have a market cap of at least $1 trillion, and a few more are close to it.

But the bar has been raised. A $1 trillion market cap is boring now. Which stock will become Wall Street's first $5 trillion stock? Here's my prediction.

Several worthy candidates

I think there are several worthy contenders for the top spot in the $5 trillion club. And they all have one thing in common: leadership in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).

Microsoft became an AI superstar after teaming up with ChatGPT developer OpenAI. The tech giant could reach a $5 trillion market cap if companies continue to flock to the cloud to develop and deploy generative AI applications.

No company has dominated the AI ​​scene like NVIDIAHowever, demand for Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) is staggering as customers have been buying them in droves to power their AI models. Don't let the recent drop in this stock's price fool you: Nvidia could soon be back on the winning track.

Some may see Google’s parent company alphabet as an outsider in the race for the $5 trillion mark. Antitrust authorities are pursuing the company because of its market dominance in digital advertising. However, I would not underestimate Alphabet. The company has been an AI pioneer for years and has particularly great growth opportunities with its Waymo self-driving car division.

And it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon is one of the first to break the $5 trillion mark. Like Microsoft and Google, it is a market leader in cloud services (in fact, Amazon Web Services is the largest market leader in this area). The company is also constantly expanding into new areas, as demonstrated by the planned launch of a satellite internet business.

My $5 trillion tip

As much as I like Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon, I don't think any of them will be the first to reach a $5 trillion market cap. Instead, I predict: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) will get there first.

It certainly helps that Apple has a head start on its other competitors. The company's market capitalization is already over $3.3 trillion. If Apple's stock price increases by 9 percent annually over the next five years, it will surpass the $5 trillion mark.

You sometimes hear that in football the best offense is a strong defense. I think that's true in business too. Apple has an exceptionally strong “defense” with its extremely loyal customer base and ecosystem of products and services. This should help keep the company's market capitalization from declining and help innovation drive growth.

What innovations are coming up at Apple? The most obvious of these is Apple Intelligence, the company's first generative AI feature. Some Wall Street analysts believe the impending launch of Apple Intelligence will trigger a new supercycle for iPhone upgrades.

I think we'll see more from Apple in the augmented reality space too – and not just with its Apple Vision mixed reality headsets. Also, 6G wireless networks could be available by 2030, enabling cool new features like displaying holographic images on your iPhones. The anticipation of that alone could push Apple past the $5 trillion mark this decade.

I could be wrong

I admit that my prediction could be completely wrong. Perhaps I'm relying too heavily on Apple's innovations to fuel growth. However, I suspect that I'm wrong and consider Apple to be the first $5 trillion stock because one of the other stocks I mentioned will hit that mark sooner.

I can imagine many scenarios where another stock beats Apple with a market cap of $5 trillion. Perhaps artificial intelligence (AGI) will be achieved, with Nvidia's GPUs becoming even more important than before. Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft could make a major breakthrough in quantum computing. Another development could come out of the blue from a company I haven't mentioned here that will completely change the rules of the game.

However, based on the current state of affairs, I believe Apple has the best chance of being the first to reach a $5 trillion market cap. Even if I'm wrong, the stock should be a solid winner for investors over the next decade and beyond.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, a subsidiary of Amazon, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Keith Speights has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.