Historian who has predicted almost every election since 1984 announces his choice for the 2024 election

A historian has revealed who he thinks will emerge victorious between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Only one month left until the 2024 presidential election. Now Allan Lichtman, history professor at American University, has his big chance to shine.

The 77-year-old claims to have correctly predicted all but one election since 1984 and has now confirmed his tip for this year.

The method

To reveal his prediction, Lichtman participated in a video interview with The New York Times that also details his efforts to get into the Senior Olympics—the whole video is oddly reminiscent of Elle Woods' bid to get into Harvard.

The video reflects on his historic success in predicting the US presidential election and the way he makes his decisions. Lichtman's “model” “ignores the polls and the experts” and instead focuses on the “13 keys” he developed in 1981 with his friend, geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

The 13 keys are “true-false questions about the big picture that show the party’s strength and performance in the White House” and “just two keys [Incumbent Charisma and Challenger Charisma] have nothing to do with the candidates.”

“It is based on the results of presidential elections over the last 120 years,” Lichtman added.

In any case, Lichtman has proven himself to be successful with this method: the historian was able to successfully predict Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 US presidential election and his defeat in 2020 against Joe Biden.

But what do Lichtman’s keys – which he calls “the constant North Star of political forecasting” – predict for this year?

The forecast

Well, weighing the keys, Lichtman explains that Democrats are “doing better than expected, but still losing” in 2022[ing] House seats: This key is “wrong” – wrong keys “good” for Trump.

The next key deals with the “incumbent president running for re-election.” But since Biden has withdrawn his candidacy, Lichtman says that imposes costs on Democrats—another “fake news.”

The third key is that the White House can avoid a primary contest – “the Democrats finally got smart and overwhelmingly lined up behind Vice President Harris,” so the key is “true” – good for Harris.

The fourth key shows there is no third party challenge – a “true” key. The fifth focuses on the economy being “strong” in the short term – the key is once again “true”. The sixth looks at long-term economic growth during Biden's term – the key is “true”, the seventh takes into account the major changes made in national policy – “true”.

Eighth: There were no “massive” social protests or unrest. Here too, the key is “true.”

And ninth, the White House is not tainted by a real scandal, that is, by “actual corruption that incriminates the President himself” – the key word is “true.”

The tenth key (the incumbent candidate is “charismatic”) is “false,” but the eleventh (the challenger candidate is “uncharismatic”) is “true”: Lichtman argues that Harris has not met the “standard” of a “one-off candidate,” but considering Trump's support base, she is loyal but “small.”

And so Lichtman sums up: “The Democrats will keep the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States – at least that is my prediction for the outcome of this race.”

However, he adds: “The outcome depends on you. So go vote.”

So what do you think?