What Biden can do to free Venezuela from the illegitimate regime of Nicolás Maduro

With flags and ballots in hand, thousands of Venezuelans have taken to the streets in Caracas and around the world to protest Nicolás Maduro's refusal to acknowledge his crushing defeat in the presidential election a month ago. The United States can do more to support them.

Opposition party leader María Corina Machado recently came out of hiding and drove through the streets to meet protesters. She got out of an armored truck and called on her supporters to keep their courage, defend the truth and increase resistance to Maduro's deceitful regime. Machado called the protests the “greatest civil society achievement in the country's history” and warned that the movement would not slow down.

At least 24 people have been found dead and 2,200 detained since Maduro ordered his military leaders to deal with protesters with an “iron fist.” Undaunted, opposition leaders plan to maintain a critical mass in the streets, win over military leaders and strip the dictator of resources and power. But to do all that, they will need all the help they can get from Washington.

The Biden administration has signaled its willingness to negotiate with Caracas, but Maduro has shown that he cannot be trusted to stick to his agreements. After talks with the US in Qatar last year, Maduro's government promised to allow free and fair elections. But this turned out to be another bluff: Not only was the election incredibly unfair, Maduro also responded to the result with harsh measures against opposition leaders and their supporters.

Waiting for an intervention by Maduro's left-wing allies in Colombia, Brazil and Mexico only gives the dictator more time for deception and repression.

The Biden administration has indicated it may offer Maduro amnesty from drug trafficking prosecutions if he agrees to a peaceful transfer of power. But given his past violations of international agreements and four months left in his term, this “carrot” strategy is unlikely to be enough to topple the strongman. The United States and other foreign powers will have to threaten him with “sticks” – economic and diplomatic consequences – to force him out of office.

For Maduro and all state-owned companies to have an exit plan, the toughest sanctions must be imposed on them. Hector Briceño, a Venezuelan postdoctoral fellow at the University of Rostock, told me that while sanctions against private companies could hurt ordinary Venezuelans, state-owned companies like the country's oil industry could be effective when the regime is currently so strapped for cash.

“The profits from the oil industry do not reach the people,” said Briceño. “Maduro distributes them among his allies in the military and other high officials.”

Maduro's regime, like that of his predecessor Hugo Chávez, operates on a top-down system of bribery and threats. Threats alone only work for a certain time; at some point, Maduro's lackeys will expect to be paid.

In response to Maduro's meddling and intimidation of the opposition ahead of the election, President Joe Biden in April reinstated some of the Trump-era sanctions that had been eased after the Qatar deal, but the administration indicated it would continue to allow certain foreign oil exploration in the country.

The Maduro government's objections to the reinstatement of sanctions have shown that they are having an effect, but his continued intransigence also shows that they have not gone far enough to influence his behavior. And this is the worst moment to be generous to the regime. Why not delay approvals for the remaining foreign oil projects with low returns, risks and environmental damage at least until a democratic government is in office?

Washington should also officially recognize Edmundo González Urrutia as the country's legitimate new president. The Biden administration has joined some other countries in acknowledging that González won the election, but has not called him president-elect.

The government cannot necessarily guarantee that Venezuela's valiant fight for freedom will prevail, but doing less than it can will only help Maduro and his cronies grow richer and bolder and prolong their grip on political power.

The stakes couldn't be higher. Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have emigrated to the United States and other countries in search of a better future, and 40 percent of those who remain say they want to leave if Maduro doesn't. A once-thriving economy has been destroyed by years of inept and corrupt rule, and the country has become a haven for institutionalized crime and terrorism and a security threat to the entire hemisphere.

The brave Venezuelan resistance is not giving up, and neither should the United States. This is a golden opportunity to end 25 years of misery under Chavez and Maduro.

Kristina Foltz is a researcher and writer based in California and Colombia.