Presidential Election Nostradamus Allan Lichtman reveals his prediction for 2024 – South Arkansas Sun

The Nostradamus of the US presidential election has predicted a winner when the country goes to the polls in November.

In a close race, pollsters will undoubtedly waver between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but Allan Lichtman has history on his side.

The American University history professor and former quiz champion has predicted the winner of the White House in almost every election since 1984. The exception was 2000, when he picked Al Gore over George W. Bush, although Lichtman claimed his model was based on the popular vote at the time, which Gore narrowly won.

In 2016, he correctly predicted that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton and was rewarded with a handwritten note from the winner that read, “GOOD CHOICE!”

Lichtman, now 77, put his system to the test with the 2024 candidates, and Trump will not send him a congratulatory message this time.

“The Democrats will keep the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States,” said the 70-year-old fortune teller The New York Times.

His prediction is based on a “13-key” model he developed with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, which he says is based “on the presidential elections of the last 120 years.”

Each key is a category related to the presidency and largely dependent on the ruling party's performance in the West Wing. Lichtman decides on a right or wrong answer to each “key.” In the November vote, “right” is good for Harris, and an “wrong” answer increases Trump's chances as a challenger.

Lichtman explained his decisions in a video for The New York Times.

The first key, “Midterm Gains,” turns in Trump’s favor, as Lichtman says in the video: “The Democrats did better than expected in 2022, but they still lost seats in the House, so the key is wrong.”

On the second key, “incumbency,” Lichtman says: “Biden withdrew from the race and cost the Democrats that key. That is wrong. Had Biden stayed in the race, they would have saved that one key.”

Trump started well, but the third key, the “primary campaign,” turned the tide. “The Democrats finally got smart and rallied overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris. So the key is right,” says Lichtman.

The fourth key, “third party,” also goes to Harris. “RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race and no other third-party candidate comes anywhere close to the 10 percent threshold needed to win that key. That's true,” he explains.

Point 5, “Short-term economy,” is also “true,” according to Lichtman, when he says: “Look, despite all the talk about so-called sentiment-mongering, the economy is not in a recession.”

He says the next key aspect, “Long-term economy,” “clearly applies,” adding, “Growth during Biden’s term is much higher than growth during the previous two terms.”

And number 7, “policy change,” is another theme for Harris. “Rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, the CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Control and Climate Act” during the Biden administration makes it a no-brainer, he says.

What is less clear is what the key to “social unrest” is, but Lichtman is banking on Harris. “There have been sporadic protests, but nothing that comes anywhere close to the massive, sustained social unrest that would be needed to turn that key. So it's true,” he says.

The next key, “White House Scandal,” is Lichtman's favorite. “Republicans have been trying to pin a scandal on President Biden for years and have come up empty-handed. So the key is right,” he says.

But he is not convinced by the charisma of either candidate. “The hurdle for this election victory is very high,” he says. “You have to be a candidate who only comes along once in a generation and who inspires everyone.”

“Harris did not meet this standard” for the “Incumbent Charisma” key.

Trump also does not win the key to “challenger charisma.” “Some people think Donald Trump is a god, but he only appeals to a narrow base. So that key is correct,” says Lichtman.

That was enough for the White House sage to declare Harris the winner. He acknowledges that the last two key factors, “foreign policy failure” and “foreign policy success,” could change, but even if they did, it would not be enough for Trump to return triumphantly to Washington DC.

While Lichtman acknowledges that voters will have to decide in the fall, he stresses: “The keys will definitely work. They are the constant North Star of political forecasting.”

Even the most skeptical observer will agree that Harris has a 50 percent chance of being right in the 2024 presidential election. But the Harris team will no doubt be happy if the professor's foresight helps make another accurate presidential prediction possible.